* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * NORBERT EP142014 09/08/14 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 35 30 26 23 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 35 30 26 23 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 35 31 27 24 21 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 12 11 10 11 13 15 11 9 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -3 -1 2 0 -1 -1 -2 -2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 128 140 150 144 149 139 115 133 179 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 23.4 23.4 23.3 23.2 23.1 23.4 23.1 22.6 23.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 94 94 92 91 90 93 90 85 97 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -50.9 -51.2 -51.3 -51.2 -51.4 -51.7 -51.8 -51.9 -52.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.1 -0.1 -0.1 0.1 0.0 0.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 2 2 2 3 3 4 4 6 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 43 42 38 35 33 32 30 29 33 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 14 13 12 11 9 7 6 4 3 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 20 26 23 25 33 21 11 -5 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 0 19 25 29 5 1 5 2 -7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 2 0 0 -1 -1 -3 -2 0 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 313 316 317 284 254 183 115 45 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 27.2 27.6 28.0 28.4 28.7 29.0 29.2 29.4 29.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 118.1 118.2 118.3 118.2 118.0 117.4 116.7 116.0 115.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 5 4 4 4 3 3 3 3 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):320/ 6 CX,CY: -3/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 528 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 8.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 1.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -0. 1. 1. 2. 1. -1. -4. -8. -11. -13. -15. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 4. 1. -2. -4. -5. -5. -6. -7. -9. -11. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -6. -7. -7. -7. -7. -7. -6. -5. -5. PERSISTENCE -2. -4. -4. -5. -4. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -6. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -6. -6. -6. -7. -7. -8. -9. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -6. -7. -10. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -2. -3. -4. -5. -8. -13. -16. -17. -16. -16. -14. -13. -12. -11. -10. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -3. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -6. -8. -9. -10. -12. -14. -14. -15. -13. -11. -11. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 5. 5. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -4. -9. -12. -17. -23. -31. -39. -44. -48. -51. -55. -58. -61. -63. -64. -65. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 27.2 118.1 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP142014 NORBERT 09/08/14 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 57.3 30.0 to 135.0 0.26 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -10.0 -20.0 to 40.0 0.17 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 11.3 17.2 to 1.6 0.38 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 15.6 -30.0 to 145.0 0.26 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 305.6 742.0 to -74.0 0.53 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 35.0 25.0 to 120.0 0.31 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 8.5 34.4 to 2.3 0.81 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.0 3.0 to 94.0 0.00 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 38.0 56.6 to 0.0 0.33 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.2 2.0 to -2.0 0.54 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 1.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 12.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.0% 4.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP142014 NORBERT 09/08/14 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##