* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * NORBERT EP142014 09/07/14 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 70 60 52 45 39 31 23 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 70 60 52 45 39 31 23 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 70 61 53 46 40 32 26 21 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 6 8 10 9 8 4 7 7 9 9 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 3 2 0 0 1 2 2 0 0 -1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 33 45 62 84 117 163 152 114 93 78 142 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 25.3 24.8 24.3 24.2 24.5 24.2 23.4 23.1 22.8 22.7 22.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 115 109 104 103 106 102 93 90 86 84 86 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -50.5 -50.7 -50.6 -50.2 -50.3 -50.3 -50.4 -50.3 -50.4 -50.6 -51.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.5 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.4 0.3 0.6 0.8 0.9 0.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 3 3 3 3 2 2 3 4 4 5 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 50 50 50 48 47 44 39 34 29 27 24 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 21 20 20 18 17 15 12 9 4 3 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 37 31 32 36 33 35 37 31 17 10 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV -20 -10 -19 3 18 3 12 -2 0 -12 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 4 1 2 0 3 3 -2 -3 -5 -1 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 245 246 244 244 260 266 200 139 92 66 31 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 25.6 26.0 26.4 26.9 27.4 28.3 29.0 29.4 29.7 29.9 30.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 116.0 116.5 116.9 117.2 117.6 117.9 117.6 117.1 116.7 116.5 116.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 7 6 5 6 5 4 3 3 2 1 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 8 CX,CY: -7/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 90 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 487 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 35.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -4. -5. -9. -13. -17. -22. -25. -29. -32. -36. -39. -42. -45. -49. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 4. 6. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. 4. 4. 3. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -1. -3. -4. -5. -6. -8. -10. -12. -12. -12. -12. -11. -10. -9. -8. PERSISTENCE -5. -7. -8. -8. -6. -4. -3. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. -0. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -0. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -6. -7. -7. -7. -7. -7. -8. -9. -10. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -5. -6. -8. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -9. -15. -24. -26. -26. -25. -22. -20. -18. -17. -15. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. GOES PREDICTORS -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -7. -7. -7. -6. -4. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 5. 5. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -9. -18. -25. -31. -39. -47. -57. -69. -77. -80. -82. -83. -82. -81. -80. -78. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 70. LAT, LON: 25.6 116.0 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP142014 NORBERT 09/07/14 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 37.2 30.0 to 135.0 0.07 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -20.0 -20.0 to 40.0 0.00 0.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 8.1 17.2 to 1.6 0.58 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -5.6 -30.0 to 145.0 0.14 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 515.4 742.0 to -74.0 0.28 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 70.0 25.0 to 120.0 0.80 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 18.8 34.4 to 2.3 0.49 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.0 3.0 to 94.0 0.00 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.1 2.0 to -2.0 0.48 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 0.7 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 9.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.0% 3.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP142014 NORBERT 09/07/14 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##