* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * NORBERT EP142014 09/06/14 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 95 97 97 93 86 71 53 41 26 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 95 97 97 93 86 71 53 41 26 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 95 97 95 89 81 64 49 37 29 22 18 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 15 13 13 9 12 9 8 4 11 11 15 14 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -5 -4 0 1 4 2 6 5 5 3 1 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 15 23 16 24 35 61 104 141 132 146 143 144 144 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 28.9 28.3 28.1 27.5 26.7 25.4 24.9 24.8 23.7 23.3 23.0 23.0 22.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 153 146 144 137 129 115 110 108 96 91 87 87 87 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -50.2 -50.3 -50.4 -50.1 -50.0 -50.6 -50.2 -50.5 -50.3 -51.0 -51.1 -51.7 -51.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.7 0.6 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.7 0.5 0.5 0.3 0.2 0.5 0.5 0.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 6 5 5 5 5 3 3 2 3 2 4 3 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 58 56 56 53 54 51 47 42 36 29 23 19 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 25 25 25 24 21 20 16 14 10 6 3 3 2 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 43 36 32 37 34 28 26 16 11 13 8 13 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 2 0 0 -18 -20 -26 15 27 21 2 12 -3 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 4 2 1 2 1 3 -1 -1 -4 -5 -3 -1 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 94 99 152 182 180 184 189 228 205 183 170 157 139 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 24.0 24.5 24.9 25.3 25.6 26.4 27.2 28.1 28.8 29.2 29.5 29.6 29.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 112.6 113.2 113.8 114.4 114.9 116.0 116.8 117.3 117.5 117.5 117.5 117.4 117.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 8 7 7 6 6 6 5 4 3 2 1 1 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 18 9 7 4 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):325/ 8 CX,CY: -4/ 7 T-12 MAX WIND: 80 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 540 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 7.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 98.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. -1. -7. -15. -22. -30. -36. -42. -48. -52. -54. -57. -60. -64. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -2. -3. -3. -4. -3. -1. 1. 2. 2. 1. -0. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -2. -5. -8. -9. -9. -9. -10. -9. -9. -8. -7. -7. -6. PERSISTENCE 4. 5. 5. 5. 3. 1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -7. -7. -7. -7. -8. -9. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -6. -8. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. 0. -1. -2. -4. -8. -13. -21. -27. -30. -28. -27. -25. -22. -20. -18. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 5. 5. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 2. 2. -2. -9. -24. -42. -54. -69. -81. -89. -93. -97. -97. -96. -97. -97. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 95. LAT, LON: 24.0 112.6 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP142014 NORBERT 09/06/14 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 46.9 30.0 to 135.0 0.16 1.3 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 15.0 -20.0 to 40.0 0.58 4.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 12.7 17.2 to 1.6 0.29 1.9 D200 (10**7s-1) : -7.2 -30.0 to 145.0 0.13 0.8 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 600.8 742.0 to -74.0 0.17 -1.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 95.0 25.0 to 120.0 0.40 2.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 7.3 34.4 to 2.3 0.84 3.8 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 7.8 3.0 to 94.0 0.05 0.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 1.8 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.0 2.0 to -2.0 0.49 0.4 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 15% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 21% is 1.4 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.6 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 14.9% 21.0% 16.3% 12.5% 11.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 2.4% 1.5% 1.1% 0.4% 0.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 5.8% 7.5% 5.8% 4.3% 3.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP142014 NORBERT 09/06/14 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##