* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * NORBERT EP142014 09/04/14 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 70 74 76 79 80 80 73 66 56 46 41 34 25 N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 70 74 76 79 80 80 73 66 56 46 41 34 25 N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 70 74 77 79 78 76 70 60 50 41 34 27 21 16 N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 14 14 17 18 17 9 13 8 12 8 8 7 14 16 23 22 28 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -2 -2 -3 -1 4 4 6 2 4 6 4 4 4 4 0 -3 SHEAR DIR 41 34 38 39 59 33 49 55 86 109 142 159 153 142 146 161 187 SST (C) 29.4 29.4 29.4 29.2 29.0 29.3 27.5 26.9 26.1 25.4 24.7 23.9 23.3 23.2 23.2 23.2 23.2 POT. INT. (KT) 157 157 157 155 153 156 137 131 123 115 108 99 92 89 88 89 88 200 MB T (C) -50.7 -50.6 -50.5 -49.8 -50.3 -49.8 -49.8 -50.3 -49.9 -50.1 -50.1 -50.1 -50.0 -50.1 -50.2 -50.5 -50.6 200 MB VXT (C) 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.9 1.0 0.8 0.9 1.1 0.9 0.7 0.6 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.8 0.8 0.7 TH_E DEV (C) 8 7 8 7 6 6 6 5 4 3 3 3 3 3 4 4 4 700-500 MB RH 76 75 73 74 70 65 57 59 56 55 49 42 35 31 28 25 23 MODEL VTX (KT) 25 26 26 28 27 28 26 25 23 20 18 15 10 3 2 4 3 850 MB ENV VOR 47 45 49 68 60 52 53 50 34 45 27 14 5 -1 5 17 12 200 MB DIV 41 6 0 51 52 21 7 3 16 25 57 25 15 19 18 8 5 700-850 TADV -5 -3 -4 -3 0 -3 -1 0 1 1 2 -1 -1 -2 0 0 0 LAND (KM) 303 245 196 168 172 175 151 222 205 207 229 252 235 222 218 218 213 LAT (DEG N) 20.2 20.7 21.2 21.7 22.2 23.2 24.0 24.8 25.7 26.5 27.5 28.4 29.0 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 109.6 110.1 110.5 111.0 111.5 112.5 113.5 114.5 115.5 116.5 117.3 117.8 118.0 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 6 7 7 7 7 6 6 6 6 6 6 4 3 1 0 0 0 HEAT CONTENT 34 31 31 27 19 28 5 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):325/ 5 CX,CY: -2/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 60 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 546 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 10.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 90.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 23.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 1. -1. -4. -6. -8. -12. -15. -19. -23. -27. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -2. -3. -6. -9. -12. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -1. -1. -3. -4. -6. -8. -9. -10. -9. -9. -8. -7. -6. -5. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 1. 1. -3. -7. -9. -13. -18. -24. -22. -18. -17. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. RI POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 3. 2. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 4. 6. 9. 10. 10. 3. -4. -14. -24. -29. -36. -45. -55. -58. -59. -62. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 70. LAT, LON: 20.2 109.6 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP142014 NORBERT 09/04/14 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 86.1 30.0 to 135.0 0.53 5.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 10.0 -20.0 to 40.0 0.50 4.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 16.1 17.2 to 1.6 0.07 0.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 30.0 -30.0 to 145.0 0.34 2.5 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 193.0 742.0 to -74.0 0.67 -4.6 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 70.0 25.0 to 120.0 0.80 5.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 10.8 34.4 to 2.3 0.74 3.9 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 28.4 3.0 to 94.0 0.28 0.9 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 2.1 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.7 2.0 to -2.0 0.67 0.6 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 16% is 2.6 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 22% is 1.8 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 21% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 2.8 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 3.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 16% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 16.2% 22.2% 21.0% 17.4% 12.8% 16.1% 11.7% 9.0% Logistic: 2.6% 5.7% 1.5% 0.9% 0.9% 1.0% 0.5% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.1% 3.7% 0.4% 0.1% 0.2% 0.7% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 6.3% 10.5% 7.6% 6.1% 4.6% 5.9% 4.1% 3.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP142014 NORBERT 09/04/14 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##