* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * NORBERT EP142014 09/03/14 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 60 66 72 79 81 85 84 74 63 51 42 34 29 24 20 18 21 V (KT) LAND 60 66 72 79 81 85 84 74 63 51 42 34 29 24 20 18 21 V (KT) LGEM 60 67 73 77 80 81 77 69 59 48 39 32 26 20 15 N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 17 19 18 13 17 17 17 19 15 15 11 14 6 9 11 10 9 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -3 -4 -2 0 0 0 1 4 1 5 0 4 3 1 2 2 SHEAR DIR 63 68 60 63 67 70 37 59 66 95 96 116 132 118 125 139 163 SST (C) 29.8 29.4 29.3 29.2 29.2 28.9 29.2 28.4 27.4 26.4 26.1 25.8 25.4 24.7 24.2 23.9 23.8 POT. INT. (KT) 162 157 156 155 155 152 155 147 136 126 122 119 115 107 102 98 97 200 MB T (C) -51.4 -50.7 -50.8 -50.7 -50.4 -50.6 -50.2 -50.3 -50.5 -50.3 -50.3 -50.3 -50.2 -50.1 -50.1 -49.9 -50.0 200 MB VXT (C) 0.7 0.6 0.7 0.7 0.8 1.1 0.9 0.7 0.9 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.3 0.5 0.6 0.4 0.2 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 8 7 7 6 5 5 4 4 3 2 2 2 3 4 5 700-500 MB RH 77 78 75 74 72 68 65 60 58 54 51 50 46 37 32 29 27 MODEL VTX (KT) 19 21 22 25 25 26 27 25 23 21 19 16 13 8 4 2 5 850 MB ENV VOR 44 63 54 50 61 70 65 51 47 41 46 25 14 12 13 0 -5 200 MB DIV 44 62 46 14 9 43 42 17 15 -4 0 -3 6 0 2 -6 -2 700-850 TADV -5 -4 -6 -4 -5 -1 -1 -1 0 0 2 0 1 -1 -3 -4 -4 LAND (KM) 362 355 311 268 234 197 215 183 229 284 289 281 271 285 249 196 144 LAT (DEG N) 19.4 19.8 20.1 20.5 20.9 21.8 22.6 23.5 24.3 24.9 25.5 26.2 27.0 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 109.0 109.5 109.9 110.3 110.7 111.5 112.4 113.4 114.5 115.6 116.5 117.2 117.6 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 6 5 5 5 6 6 6 6 6 5 5 4 5 4 4 3 3 HEAT CONTENT 37 36 32 28 25 17 20 11 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 8 CX,CY: -7/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 379 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 9.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 98.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 43.4 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 7. 6. 6. 5. 3. 1. -1. -4. -7. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -6. -8. -8. -9. -8. -8. -9. -9. -10. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -8. -9. -9. -9. -9. -8. -7. -6. PERSISTENCE 3. 5. 5. 5. 4. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 1. 2. 4. 4. 5. 8. 7. 5. 2. -1. -5. -8. -12. -16. -15. -12. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. -3. -3. -2. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. RI POTENTIAL 1. 3. 5. 7. 11. 10. 6. 1. -1. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -5. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 6. 12. 19. 21. 25. 24. 14. 4. -9. -18. -26. -31. -36. -40. -42. -39. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 60. LAT, LON: 19.4 109.0 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP142014 NORBERT 09/03/14 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 96.8 30.0 to 135.0 0.64 6.3 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 15.0 -20.0 to 40.0 0.58 5.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 16.9 17.2 to 1.6 0.02 0.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 35.0 -30.0 to 145.0 0.37 2.9 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 118.6 742.0 to -74.0 0.76 -5.4 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 60.0 25.0 to 120.0 0.96 6.6 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 9.5 34.4 to 2.3 0.78 4.3 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 31.6 3.0 to 94.0 0.31 1.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 2.2 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.0 2.0 to -2.0 0.73 0.7 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 17% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 32% is 2.5 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 25% is 2.9 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 20% is 3.3 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 3.5 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 17.1% 31.7% 24.5% 20.4% 14.8% 0.0% 0.0% 10.7% Logistic: 6.2% 18.0% 4.6% 2.9% 3.3% 2.8% 1.8% 0.2% Bayesian: 1.3% 14.6% 3.3% 1.0% 2.7% 2.2% 0.2% 0.0% Consensus: 8.2% 21.4% 10.8% 8.1% 6.9% 1.7% 0.7% 3.6% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP142014 NORBERT 09/03/14 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##