* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * NORBERT EP142014 09/03/14 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 45 51 57 64 71 82 84 82 71 61 53 48 44 41 40 38 36 V (KT) LAND 45 51 57 64 71 82 84 82 71 61 53 48 44 41 40 38 36 V (KT) LGEM 45 50 56 61 67 78 82 79 73 64 56 49 42 37 32 28 25 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 12 11 10 12 13 14 19 13 16 12 12 12 15 8 11 11 13 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 0 -1 -2 -2 0 -4 0 -1 0 -2 0 -1 0 0 1 3 SHEAR DIR 60 72 80 79 90 67 83 48 58 62 70 54 101 82 84 73 73 SST (C) 30.4 30.3 30.2 30.0 29.8 29.5 29.1 29.6 28.3 27.4 26.5 26.2 25.9 25.8 25.7 25.3 24.9 POT. INT. (KT) 168 167 165 163 161 158 154 159 146 136 126 123 119 118 117 113 109 200 MB T (C) -51.7 -51.9 -51.5 -50.8 -51.0 -50.7 -50.7 -50.3 -50.5 -50.7 -50.6 -50.4 -50.8 -50.8 -51.0 -51.0 -51.1 200 MB VXT (C) 0.5 0.6 0.5 0.5 0.6 0.9 0.9 0.6 0.5 0.4 0.6 0.6 0.7 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.7 TH_E DEV (C) 8 7 9 10 8 8 6 5 4 3 3 2 2 2 2 2 2 700-500 MB RH 79 77 76 77 76 74 70 69 66 65 62 60 56 52 46 40 36 MODEL VTX (KT) 12 13 15 16 17 21 20 21 19 17 17 17 16 14 12 10 9 850 MB ENV VOR 40 43 65 65 57 66 70 63 50 39 37 37 31 19 24 35 31 200 MB DIV 40 26 49 70 57 64 17 45 19 -14 14 -21 -20 -2 0 -6 -8 700-850 TADV -5 -3 -3 -1 -1 -2 -3 -2 -3 -2 0 0 0 1 0 2 1 LAND (KM) 201 234 282 290 241 148 142 168 157 229 287 312 343 378 409 466 521 LAT (DEG N) 19.4 19.8 20.2 20.5 20.8 21.6 22.4 23.1 23.8 24.3 24.8 25.2 25.5 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 107.3 107.9 108.4 108.9 109.4 110.3 111.3 112.3 113.4 114.5 115.5 116.5 117.3 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 8 7 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 5 5 5 4 3 3 3 4 HEAT CONTENT 34 41 52 51 39 27 18 27 9 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):315/ 8 CX,CY: -5/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 553 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 10.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 91.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 53.9 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 6. 10. 13. 17. 18. 19. 20. 20. 19. 18. 17. 16. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 0. -2. -4. -6. -6. -6. -6. -7. -8. -9. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -9. -9. -10. -9. -9. -8. -8. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 2. 2. 3. 6. 8. 11. 9. 7. 6. 5. 4. 1. -1. -2. -3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. RI POTENTIAL 2. 4. 7. 10. 15. 14. 8. 2. -2. -5. -7. -9. -9. -8. -8. -8. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 6. 12. 19. 26. 37. 39. 37. 26. 16. 8. 3. -1. -4. -5. -7. -9. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 45. LAT, LON: 19.4 107.3 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP142014 NORBERT 09/03/14 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 120.0 30.0 to 135.0 0.86 10.1 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 10.0 -20.0 to 40.0 0.50 6.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 11.5 17.2 to 1.6 0.37 3.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 48.4 -30.0 to 145.0 0.45 4.1 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 64.0 742.0 to -74.0 0.83 -7.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 45.0 25.0 to 120.0 0.61 5.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 10.5 34.4 to 2.3 0.74 4.9 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 43.4 3.0 to 94.0 0.44 1.8 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 2.6 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.7 2.0 to -2.0 0.67 0.8 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 17% is 2.6 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 46% is 3.7 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 32% is 3.7 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 23% is 3.7 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 3.8 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 33% is 5.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 29% is 4.9 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 20% is 4.4 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 16.6% 46.1% 31.6% 23.1% 16.1% 33.4% 28.9% 20.5% Logistic: 9.8% 32.2% 15.4% 8.3% 6.9% 18.4% 18.7% 1.5% Bayesian: 1.7% 19.7% 6.2% 1.4% 3.4% 5.8% 1.9% 3.4% Consensus: 9.4% 32.7% 17.7% 10.9% 8.8% 19.2% 16.5% 8.5% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP142014 NORBERT 09/03/14 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##