* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * NORBERT EP142014 09/03/14 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 40 44 48 56 61 72 76 75 71 65 58 53 48 45 43 40 37 V (KT) LAND 40 44 48 56 61 72 76 75 71 65 58 53 48 45 43 40 37 V (KT) LGEM 40 43 47 51 56 66 74 74 72 67 61 53 46 40 34 29 25 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 14 13 11 8 14 14 20 15 17 15 17 17 17 15 13 13 16 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -1 0 0 0 -2 0 -1 -1 -3 0 0 6 0 3 1 4 SHEAR DIR 37 57 66 65 80 65 65 70 54 64 68 90 92 89 87 72 63 SST (C) 30.4 30.4 30.4 30.3 30.2 30.1 29.9 29.3 28.6 27.7 26.9 26.5 26.2 26.0 25.8 25.4 25.2 POT. INT. (KT) 168 168 168 167 165 164 162 156 149 139 130 126 123 121 119 115 112 200 MB T (C) -51.3 -51.6 -51.9 -51.1 -50.6 -51.1 -49.9 -50.8 -50.1 -50.8 -50.5 -50.8 -50.5 -50.9 -50.8 -51.1 -51.2 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.5 0.6 0.5 0.5 0.8 0.9 0.9 0.5 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.4 0.4 0.2 0.4 0.5 TH_E DEV (C) 9 8 8 9 10 7 7 5 6 4 5 4 4 3 3 2 2 700-500 MB RH 78 78 75 76 77 76 71 69 66 59 54 54 48 45 41 35 28 MODEL VTX (KT) 13 14 15 19 18 22 21 21 21 21 20 19 17 16 14 12 9 850 MB ENV VOR 29 42 42 58 62 52 70 52 51 33 37 37 27 29 32 36 36 200 MB DIV 58 43 21 44 41 38 55 -15 12 -13 -6 -6 -1 -7 7 -12 -5 700-850 TADV -4 -4 -3 -3 -2 -3 -1 -2 0 -2 0 0 0 -1 0 0 0 LAND (KM) 181 195 219 273 300 211 162 201 216 233 310 391 421 468 497 537 590 LAT (DEG N) 18.9 19.4 19.8 20.1 20.4 21.0 21.7 22.4 23.0 23.5 23.9 24.1 24.3 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 106.7 107.2 107.7 108.3 108.9 109.9 110.9 112.0 113.1 114.1 115.2 116.2 117.0 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 7 7 6 6 6 6 6 6 5 5 5 4 4 4 4 4 4 HEAT CONTENT 32 34 40 54 55 36 25 14 9 5 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):350/ 8 CX,CY: 0/ 8 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 704 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 81.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 45.5 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 6. 10. 15. 20. 22. 24. 25. 25. 25. 25. 24. 23. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 0. -2. -5. -6. -7. -8. -8. -9. -11. -12. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -8. -8. -7. -7. -7. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 4. 4. 7. 8. 10. 12. 11. 9. 7. 4. 3. 1. -1. -3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. RI POTENTIAL 1. 3. 5. 8. 12. 11. 6. 2. -1. -4. -6. -7. -7. -6. -6. -6. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 4. 8. 16. 21. 32. 36. 35. 31. 25. 18. 13. 8. 5. 3. 0. -3. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 40. LAT, LON: 18.9 106.7 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP142014 NORBERT 09/03/14 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 127.1 30.0 to 135.0 0.93 8.9 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -20.0 to 40.0 0.42 4.1 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 12.1 17.2 to 1.6 0.33 2.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 41.4 -30.0 to 145.0 0.41 3.1 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 44.6 742.0 to -74.0 0.85 -5.9 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 40.0 25.0 to 120.0 0.46 3.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.8 34.4 to 2.3 0.55 2.9 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 43.0 3.0 to 94.0 0.44 1.4 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 2.2 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.0 2.0 to -2.0 0.48 0.5 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 24% is 1.9 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 23% is 2.6 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 18% is 3.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 3.1 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 20% is 2.9 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 17% is 2.8 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 19% is 4.1 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 12.6% 24.0% 22.7% 18.4% 13.2% 19.5% 16.5% 19.3% Logistic: 3.3% 19.7% 7.8% 3.7% 2.4% 10.2% 11.2% 1.8% Bayesian: 0.1% 3.7% 0.7% 0.1% 0.1% 2.6% 1.9% 5.0% Consensus: 5.3% 15.8% 10.4% 7.4% 5.3% 10.8% 9.9% 8.7% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP142014 NORBERT 09/03/14 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##