* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * DOLLY AL052014 09/02/14 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 45 48 49 50 51 47 47 49 50 51 51 51 51 51 50 51 50 V (KT) LAND 45 48 49 44 38 30 28 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 V (KT) LGEM 45 49 52 54 40 31 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 17 14 19 22 22 22 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 0 2 3 1 -1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 341 328 302 311 316 289 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 30.4 30.4 29.8 28.5 27.8 27.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 172 171 165 143 133 130 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 164 160 147 126 117 115 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.6 -52.3 -51.7 -51.8 -52.0 -51.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.3 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 11 13 15 13 13 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 63 63 64 63 64 68 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 12 13 12 13 13 9 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -18 -2 11 0 2 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 16 32 43 5 9 44 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -6 -6 -1 -6 -3 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 225 143 61 -15 -91 -249 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 23.2 23.6 23.9 24.2 24.4 24.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 95.6 96.4 97.2 97.9 98.7 100.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 10 8 7 7 7 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 68 68 40 16 10 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):300/ 13 CX,CY: -10/ 7 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 682 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 22.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 60.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 1.9 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 11. 14. 16. 18. 20. 21. 22. 22. 22. 21. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -2. -4. -5. -7. -7. -8. -9. -9. -10. -10. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -6. -6. -6. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -0. -0. -0. -4. -6. -8. -9. -10. -11. -12. -12. -13. -13. -12. -12. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. -0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 3. 4. 5. 6. 2. 2. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. 6. 6. 5. 6. 5. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 45. LAT, LON: 23.2 95.6 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL052014 DOLLY 09/02/14 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 10.0 -45.0 to 30.0 0.73 4.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 18.8 25.9 to 2.2 0.30 0.8 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 40.4 0.0 to 147.0 0.27 0.8 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 22.6 33.3 to 3.1 0.35 0.8 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 45.0 25.0 to 125.0 0.56 1.1 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.7 2.6 to -2.7 0.36 0.5 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 140.8 814.0 to -65.0 0.77 1.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 97.8 30.0 to 128.0 0.69 0.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 21.0 -28.0 to 171.0 0.25 0.3 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 95.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 1.5 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 4% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 7.6% 16.4% 10.8% 7.9% 4.4% 8.3% 9.8% 10.8% Logistic: 6.7% 17.2% 10.9% 5.8% 2.4% 8.1% 4.6% 4.7% Bayesian: 3.4% 1.7% 0.9% 0.7% 0.1% 0.4% 0.2% 0.8% Consensus: 5.9% 11.8% 7.5% 4.8% 2.3% 5.6% 4.9% 5.5% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL052014 DOLLY 09/02/14 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=1 NFAIL=6 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL052014 DOLLY 09/02/2014 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 45 48 49 44 38 30 28 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 18HR AGO 45 44 45 40 34 26 24 23 23 23 23 23 23 23 23 23 23 12HR AGO 45 42 41 36 30 22 20 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 6HR AGO 45 39 36 35 29 21 19 18 18 18 18 18 18 18 18 18 18 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT