* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * CRISTOBAL AL042014 08/28/14 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 65 66 68 69 69 66 53 39 33 29 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 65 66 68 69 69 66 53 39 33 29 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 65 67 69 73 74 63 46 35 30 28 31 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 5 10 23 34 41 69 76 64 41 12 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -4 0 5 7 11 8 -3 -1 -2 -2 -4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 220 214 206 223 240 228 215 213 202 216 224 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 26.9 27.4 27.0 25.5 23.9 16.3 16.1 12.1 13.0 11.9 11.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 127 134 131 117 104 77 76 71 70 68 68 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 114 124 122 110 97 74 73 68 67 66 65 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.0 -52.2 -51.3 -50.9 -50.4 -49.1 -48.2 -47.3 -47.6 -47.8 -50.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 1.2 0.8 0.9 1.5 1.4 1.1 0.8 1.7 4.1 4.6 4.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 9 8 8 7 4 1 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 45 47 41 40 44 49 39 42 55 62 69 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 28 28 31 32 34 41 39 36 38 36 30 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 14 25 44 112 153 155 157 230 243 215 194 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 13 57 81 65 73 97 26 40 82 46 25 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 6 12 2 -27 10 17 -75 -65 -3 18 -10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 618 686 668 631 590 376 815 1321 1369 1262 1171 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 34.8 36.3 37.7 39.6 41.4 45.4 49.6 53.8 57.5 60.8 64.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 69.0 66.2 63.4 59.8 56.1 48.6 41.9 35.8 30.9 27.3 23.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 21 27 30 34 34 32 30 26 21 19 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 7 19 13 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 40/ 15 CX,CY: 10/ 11 T-12 MAX WIND: 65 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 705 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 39.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 4.7 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 1. -3. -7. -12. -18. -23. -27. -30. -33. -36. -37. -39. -39. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. -0. -2. -8. -17. -26. -32. -31. -30. -35. -40. -47. -51. -54. -56. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. -0. -1. -3. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 1. 3. 5. 6. 7. 8. 8. 9. 10. 12. 12. 12. 11. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -7. -9. -11. -15. -19. -22. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. 1. 1. 3. 9. 9. 6. 9. 6. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -6. -7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 8. 9. 10. 10. 12. 12. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. -0. -0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -6. -6. -6. -7. -7. -8. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 4. 4. 1. -12. -26. -32. -36. -47. -54. -62. -72. -80. -87. -92. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 65. LAT, LON: 34.8 69.0 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL042014 CRISTOBAL 08/28/14 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -45.0 to 30.0 0.60 3.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 22.8 25.9 to 2.2 0.13 0.3 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 7.8 0.0 to 147.0 0.05 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.0 33.3 to 3.1 0.57 1.2 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 65.0 25.0 to 125.0 0.93 1.7 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.1 2.6 to -2.7 0.69 0.8 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 562.0 814.0 to -65.0 0.29 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 48.6 30.0 to 128.0 0.19 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 57.8 -28.0 to 171.0 0.43 0.4 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 24.7 95.0 to 0.0 0.74 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.1 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 4% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 6.5% 12.2% 8.6% 6.7% 3.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 3.3% 1.9% 1.9% 0.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 3.4% 4.7% 3.5% 2.5% 1.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL042014 CRISTOBAL 08/28/14 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL042014 CRISTOBAL 08/28/2014 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 2 3( 5) 3( 8) 3( 11) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 65 66 68 69 69 66 53 39 33 29 18 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 65 64 66 67 67 64 51 37 31 27 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 65 62 61 62 62 59 46 32 26 22 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 65 59 56 55 55 52 39 25 19 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT