* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * CRISTOBAL AL042014 08/27/14 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 70 74 78 80 82 84 82 86 78 62 38 19 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 70 74 78 80 82 84 82 86 78 62 38 19 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 70 73 76 78 80 85 88 79 59 42 32 28 29 33 40 N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 11 2 7 12 8 17 30 51 68 60 56 46 24 12 15 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 2 3 0 0 0 8 8 0 -3 1 5 -4 -2 -2 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 254 217 138 146 162 206 215 223 217 215 214 211 213 231 231 N/A N/A SST (C) 28.9 28.4 28.0 27.7 27.8 27.5 26.2 18.7 14.5 15.1 13.0 13.2 12.1 10.7 9.2 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 151 143 138 134 137 135 122 82 74 73 71 70 69 68 67 N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 134 125 120 117 120 123 114 78 71 70 68 67 67 66 65 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.2 -51.6 -51.7 -50.9 -50.7 -51.2 -50.4 -50.1 -49.4 -50.0 -49.4 -49.3 -49.3 -50.0 -50.9 N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 1.5 1.4 1.3 1.1 1.6 1.1 1.7 0.7 1.2 1.9 2.5 2.2 4.5 5.3 4.3 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 10 10 9 10 10 8 6 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 41 41 44 47 47 52 45 52 51 58 54 51 55 56 62 N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 30 31 31 32 32 33 34 44 47 42 34 27 30 23 22 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 81 47 38 18 3 31 110 172 148 187 201 177 180 158 117 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 2 -10 26 40 29 47 65 77 83 68 85 81 42 -33 -67 N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 9 3 1 1 4 -6 -66 14 -32 -54 -95 -107 -29 -2 0 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 733 654 594 593 628 673 595 345 636 1089 1500 1244 1071 951 774 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 29.7 30.9 32.1 33.3 34.4 37.0 40.2 43.9 47.6 51.1 54.7 58.4 61.8 xx.x xx.x N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 71.5 71.2 70.9 70.0 69.0 65.0 58.6 51.2 44.3 38.3 33.1 28.4 23.2 xxx.x xxx.x N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 13 12 13 14 17 25 32 32 28 25 23 22 21 20 19 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 29 27 14 9 13 19 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 0/ 14 CX,CY: 0/ 14 T-12 MAX WIND: 65 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 729 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 11.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 96.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 15.6 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. -1. -5. -10. -15. -19. -24. -29. -34. -38. -39. -40. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. -3. -11. -17. -23. -29. -32. -34. -35. -37. -39. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 5. 6. 6. 7. 8. 10. 10. 10. 10. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. -10. -13. -17. -20. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 13. 17. 11. -1. -11. -8. -17. -18. -18. -18. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 7. 9. 9. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -1. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 4. 8. 10. 12. 14. 12. 16. 8. -8. -32. -51. -54. -68. -73. -78. -83. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 70. LAT, LON: 29.7 71.5 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL042014 CRISTOBAL 08/27/14 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -45.0 to 30.0 0.67 4.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 8.3 25.9 to 2.2 0.74 2.2 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 18.4 0.0 to 147.0 0.13 0.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 11.5 33.3 to 3.1 0.72 1.7 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 70.0 25.0 to 125.0 0.85 1.8 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.3 2.6 to -2.7 0.44 0.6 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 598.6 814.0 to -65.0 0.25 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 53.2 30.0 to 128.0 0.24 0.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 17.4 -28.0 to 171.0 0.23 0.3 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 58.8 95.0 to 0.0 0.38 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 1.6 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 10.7% 17.1% 11.8% 0.0% 0.0% 10.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 6.7% 12.8% 13.1% 8.6% 1.8% 3.4% 0.5% 0.0% Bayesian: 2.0% 0.2% 0.6% 0.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 6.5% 10.0% 8.5% 3.1% 0.6% 4.5% 0.2% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL042014 CRISTOBAL 08/27/14 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL042014 CRISTOBAL 08/27/2014 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 4 6( 10) 8( 17) 9( 24) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 70 74 78 80 82 84 82 86 78 62 38 19 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 70 69 73 75 77 79 77 81 73 57 33 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 70 67 66 68 70 72 70 74 66 50 26 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 70 64 61 60 62 64 62 66 58 42 18 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT