* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * MARIE EP132014 08/26/14 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 85 81 78 75 70 60 48 36 28 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 85 81 78 75 70 60 48 36 28 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 85 79 74 69 64 53 43 33 27 22 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 7 6 5 4 6 7 3 5 7 10 9 10 8 9 7 11 10 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -1 -4 -3 -3 -2 -2 5 4 9 3 3 2 5 6 4 7 SHEAR DIR 49 67 87 104 108 139 158 202 215 216 243 232 249 229 227 211 217 SST (C) 26.7 26.6 26.1 25.1 24.1 22.7 21.4 20.8 21.8 21.9 22.1 22.2 22.3 22.4 22.5 22.6 22.9 POT. INT. (KT) 132 131 125 115 105 90 76 69 79 79 80 79 81 82 84 85 88 200 MB T (C) -51.4 -50.9 -50.1 -50.5 -50.8 -50.0 -50.2 -49.8 -49.9 -50.1 -50.3 -50.8 -51.1 -51.2 -51.4 -51.3 -51.4 200 MB VXT (C) 1.1 1.1 1.4 1.5 1.6 1.4 1.4 0.9 0.8 0.9 0.9 0.6 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.1 0.3 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 4 4 2 1 0 0 0 0 1 1 1 1 1 2 700-500 MB RH 75 71 70 68 69 67 65 59 52 48 44 38 35 32 33 32 30 MODEL VTX (KT) 43 42 41 40 38 35 32 29 26 23 19 15 13 10 8 7 6 850 MB ENV VOR 111 116 111 94 78 59 24 19 1 8 9 4 4 -6 -3 1 -4 200 MB DIV 51 41 27 13 -9 12 9 15 9 14 8 -7 -10 -8 2 -4 2 700-850 TADV -2 -5 -4 0 2 5 3 13 7 9 2 0 0 -1 -3 -4 -4 LAND (KM) 794 854 898 944 1007 1155 1270 1263 1262 1219 1220 1226 1252 1290 1347 1428 1508 LAT (DEG N) 20.4 21.0 21.6 22.1 22.6 23.7 25.2 26.7 28.1 29.4 30.2 30.5 30.6 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 118.4 119.6 120.7 122.0 123.2 125.6 127.8 129.8 131.2 132.2 132.8 133.1 133.5 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 13 12 12 13 12 12 12 10 9 6 4 2 2 2 3 4 4 HEAT CONTENT 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):305/ 13 CX,CY: -10/ 7 T-12 MAX WIND: 100 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 493 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 7.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 98.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -5. -12. -20. -29. -36. -42. -47. -52. -57. -61. -65. -69. -73. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 6. 7. 7. 7. 7. 6. 5. 5. 4. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -0. 1. 2. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. PERSISTENCE -4. -6. -6. -6. -4. -3. -1. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 1. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. 6. 6. 6. 6. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -4. -6. -7. -9. -10. -11. -11. -12. -12. -14. -16. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -2. -3. -6. -10. -18. -24. -29. -34. -36. -36. -35. -33. -32. -30. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 5. 5. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -4. -7. -10. -15. -25. -37. -49. -57. -66. -74. -79. -82. -84. -86. -90. -93. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 85. LAT, LON: 20.4 118.4 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP132014 MARIE 08/26/14 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 36.5 30.0 to 135.0 0.06 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -15.0 -20.0 to 40.0 0.08 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 5.6 17.2 to 1.6 0.74 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 24.6 -30.0 to 145.0 0.31 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 353.2 742.0 to -74.0 0.48 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 85.0 25.0 to 120.0 0.56 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 7.7 34.4 to 2.3 0.83 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.4 3.0 to 94.0 0.00 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.6 2.0 to -2.0 0.35 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 1.2 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 15.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.8% 1.8% 0.3% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.3% 5.6% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP132014 MARIE 08/26/14 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##