* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * CRISTOBAL AL042014 08/26/14 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 65 70 76 80 81 85 88 90 91 87 72 55 37 26 N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 65 70 76 80 81 85 88 90 91 87 72 55 37 26 N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 65 72 78 83 85 86 88 88 84 67 51 38 32 29 27 28 31 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 18 18 7 9 3 7 11 16 34 60 82 88 86 53 33 26 21 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 -1 1 4 3 2 0 9 14 15 4 0 -11 -3 -8 -3 -1 SHEAR DIR 329 319 272 273 281 131 168 178 238 233 223 215 209 209 232 250 239 SST (C) 29.3 29.3 29.0 29.0 28.7 27.8 27.4 26.6 24.4 18.4 18.4 17.0 13.3 13.1 13.4 13.1 12.2 POT. INT. (KT) 156 157 152 153 148 136 133 125 106 80 79 77 72 71 68 66 66 ADJ. POT. INT. 137 141 136 136 131 120 120 113 97 75 74 72 69 68 65 63 63 200 MB T (C) -51.2 -51.3 -51.1 -51.2 -51.5 -51.1 -51.1 -50.8 -50.5 -49.8 -49.3 -48.2 -48.6 -48.8 -50.9 -53.6 -54.6 200 MB VXT (C) 1.7 1.5 1.4 1.7 1.6 1.1 1.1 1.1 0.8 1.0 0.1 0.8 1.8 3.3 3.3 1.5 1.2 TH_E DEV (C) 10 9 10 10 11 11 10 9 6 2 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 48 48 48 46 44 44 47 43 36 40 38 37 31 36 47 49 55 MODEL VTX (KT) 25 27 31 32 29 30 31 33 36 39 37 36 35 37 29 21 18 850 MB ENV VOR 97 93 101 78 47 20 2 36 130 183 167 159 143 123 113 72 2 200 MB DIV 42 39 57 4 3 35 25 72 50 67 47 29 36 47 36 -3 0 700-850 TADV 10 18 17 11 9 1 -15 -20 -4 26 -9 -2 -8 -6 -9 0 -12 LAND (KM) 615 738 857 833 758 710 851 800 741 543 776 1120 1430 950 791 691 648 LAT (DEG N) 25.5 26.6 27.7 28.9 30.1 32.4 34.8 37.3 40.1 43.0 46.0 49.1 52.6 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 72.0 71.7 71.4 71.0 70.6 69.1 65.7 60.7 55.0 48.6 42.9 37.7 31.4 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 8 11 12 12 13 16 21 25 27 26 25 25 27 23 15 10 10 HEAT CONTENT 41 61 38 31 33 10 12 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 0/ 4 CX,CY: 0/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 50 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 564 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 25.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 62.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 14.5 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. 0. -3. -6. -10. -14. -19. -23. -27. -29. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -1. -0. 1. 2. 4. 5. 3. -3. -13. -25. -36. -46. -50. -51. -51. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -1. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. -1. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 5. 6. 8. 8. 8. 8. PERSISTENCE 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. -7. -9. -10. -12. -13. -13. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. 4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 3. 4. 2. 3. 4. 6. 11. 15. 11. 9. 6. 8. -4. -13. -16. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. 7. 6. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. -0. -0. -0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 5. 11. 15. 16. 20. 23. 25. 26. 22. 7. -10. -28. -39. -57. -69. -76. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 65. LAT, LON: 25.5 72.0 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL042014 CRISTOBAL 08/26/14 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 15.0 -45.0 to 30.0 0.80 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 11.1 25.9 to 2.2 0.63 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 40.8 0.0 to 147.0 0.28 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 25.6 33.3 to 3.1 0.25 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 65.0 25.0 to 125.0 0.93 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 2.9 2.6 to -2.7 0.00 0.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 452.0 814.0 to -65.0 0.41 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 71.0 30.0 to 128.0 0.42 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 29.0 -28.0 to 171.0 0.29 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 29.9 95.0 to 0.0 0.69 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 1.5 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 16.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 3.0% 6.0% 5.3% 4.2% 0.7% 4.0% 2.6% 0.2% Bayesian: 6.9% 0.6% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.2% 0.0% Consensus: 3.3% 7.8% 1.8% 1.4% 0.2% 1.4% 0.9% 0.1% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL042014 CRISTOBAL 08/26/14 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL042014 CRISTOBAL 08/26/2014 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 2 5( 7) 8( 14) 10( 23) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 65 70 76 80 81 85 88 90 91 87 72 55 37 26 DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 65 64 70 74 75 79 82 84 85 81 66 49 31 20 DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 65 62 61 65 66 70 73 75 76 72 57 40 22 DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 65 59 56 55 56 60 63 65 66 62 47 30 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT