* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * MARIE EP132014 08/26/14 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 100 92 88 84 80 71 60 49 38 30 22 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 100 92 88 84 80 71 60 49 38 30 22 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 100 91 85 80 75 64 52 40 32 26 22 18 16 15 N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 7 8 10 11 9 8 6 3 3 6 9 8 7 9 10 11 10 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 1 0 -1 -4 -3 -3 0 2 0 4 1 0 -2 0 0 1 SHEAR DIR 356 37 64 68 70 90 137 197 201 211 206 239 234 266 253 278 268 SST (C) 27.6 27.4 27.1 26.8 25.8 24.0 22.5 21.6 20.3 21.8 22.1 22.2 22.2 22.3 22.4 22.6 22.7 POT. INT. (KT) 141 139 136 133 122 104 88 78 65 80 81 81 79 80 82 85 86 200 MB T (C) -50.8 -51.1 -51.1 -50.5 -49.9 -50.5 -49.5 -49.6 -49.3 -49.4 -49.5 -49.7 -50.2 -50.6 -50.8 -50.8 -50.8 200 MB VXT (C) 1.0 1.2 1.3 1.3 1.3 1.6 1.2 1.3 1.3 1.2 1.2 1.5 1.3 0.9 0.9 0.7 0.7 TH_E DEV (C) 8 7 7 6 6 4 2 1 0 0 0 0 1 1 1 1 2 700-500 MB RH 75 75 76 71 69 70 66 63 58 55 48 42 38 33 30 31 31 MODEL VTX (KT) 46 46 45 44 43 41 37 33 30 27 24 20 16 14 12 9 7 850 MB ENV VOR 91 102 115 122 120 91 66 29 15 -2 5 1 4 5 6 5 6 200 MB DIV 70 37 63 58 59 -11 14 0 17 -1 26 13 -16 0 -2 2 -3 700-850 TADV 2 -3 -3 -5 -3 2 5 2 10 6 4 0 -4 0 -1 -2 -3 LAND (KM) 769 779 808 863 915 996 1141 1283 1273 1271 1215 1165 1144 1168 1211 1272 1341 LAT (DEG N) 18.9 19.5 20.1 20.7 21.3 22.4 23.6 25.0 26.5 28.2 29.6 30.6 31.1 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 116.2 117.3 118.3 119.5 120.6 122.9 125.4 127.7 129.7 131.4 132.3 132.4 132.5 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 12 12 12 12 12 13 13 12 11 10 6 4 1 1 2 3 4 HEAT CONTENT 7 4 3 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):305/ 11 CX,CY: -8/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 125 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 512 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 9.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 99.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL -1. -1. -2. -5. -13. -23. -34. -44. -52. -59. -65. -69. -73. -78. -82. -87. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -1. -2. -3. -2. 0. 3. 5. 7. 7. 7. 7. 6. 5. 4. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. -1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. PERSISTENCE -7. -9. -10. -9. -6. -3. -0. 2. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 1. 3. 4. 5. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -3. -5. -6. -8. -9. -9. -10. -11. -12. -14. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -1. -2. -4. -9. -16. -22. -27. -30. -34. -35. -34. -33. -32. -31. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 3. 4. 4. 3. 4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -8. -12. -16. -20. -29. -40. -51. -62. -70. -78. -84. -86. -88. -89. -93. -95. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 100. LAT, LON: 18.9 116.2 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP132014 MARIE 08/26/14 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 34.0 30.0 to 135.0 0.04 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -25.0 -20.0 to 40.0 0.00 0.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 9.1 17.2 to 1.6 0.52 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 57.4 -30.0 to 145.0 0.50 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 295.6 742.0 to -74.0 0.55 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 100.0 25.0 to 120.0 0.32 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 9.6 34.4 to 2.3 0.77 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 3.2 3.0 to 94.0 0.00 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.5 2.0 to -2.0 0.38 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 0.8 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 9.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.2% 0.7% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.1% 3.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP132014 MARIE 08/26/14 00 UTC ## ## PASSED SCREENING STEP, MIGHT BE ANNULAR, CALCULATE AHI FROM DISCRIMINANT ANALYSIS ## ## AHI= 1 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##