* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * MARIE EP132014 08/25/14 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 125 119 116 114 109 98 87 74 60 44 33 28 26 20 N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 125 119 116 114 109 98 87 74 60 44 33 28 26 20 N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 125 118 112 106 100 87 74 58 44 33 25 21 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 9 9 8 6 12 15 12 8 5 2 3 3 7 9 15 16 15 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 3 1 0 1 -2 -3 0 0 3 1 9 10 12 11 10 9 SHEAR DIR 353 7 343 23 36 60 54 61 64 25 263 231 188 168 172 157 165 SST (C) 28.4 28.4 27.9 27.6 27.4 26.9 24.8 23.0 21.4 19.5 21.3 21.6 21.9 22.0 22.1 22.1 22.1 POT. INT. (KT) 149 149 144 141 139 134 112 93 76 61 74 76 78 77 78 77 78 200 MB T (C) -51.3 -51.0 -50.5 -50.2 -50.3 -49.9 -49.8 -49.8 -49.4 -49.3 -49.2 -49.4 -49.3 -49.4 -49.8 -50.2 -50.5 200 MB VXT (C) 0.7 0.9 0.9 1.0 1.2 1.4 1.5 1.4 1.2 1.0 1.1 1.1 1.2 1.3 0.9 0.5 0.1 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 7 7 7 6 4 3 2 0 0 0 0 1 2 2 2 700-500 MB RH 79 81 79 77 75 73 69 68 63 63 56 50 42 33 26 24 22 MODEL VTX (KT) 43 46 48 48 48 45 43 39 35 31 27 25 23 19 14 10 7 850 MB ENV VOR 70 81 88 103 110 136 115 89 59 29 14 2 6 13 2 14 31 200 MB DIV 64 89 103 55 32 58 30 -24 -4 -1 7 20 21 10 3 -9 -2 700-850 TADV 5 5 -1 -5 -7 -5 -1 0 6 4 7 1 0 -4 -11 -11 -15 LAND (KM) 746 739 752 767 767 838 926 1044 1193 1224 1207 1185 1127 1112 1108 1122 1130 LAT (DEG N) 17.0 17.7 18.3 19.0 19.6 20.9 22.1 23.4 24.8 26.3 27.8 29.3 30.3 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 113.4 114.4 115.3 116.3 117.2 119.3 121.7 124.2 126.5 128.7 130.2 131.2 131.7 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 11 11 11 11 11 12 13 13 12 11 9 7 4 2 1 0 1 HEAT CONTENT 20 15 9 6 5 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):300/ 10 CX,CY: -8/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 140 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 529 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 6.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 99.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL -1. -3. -6. -9. -17. -29. -43. -55. -68. -78. -86. -91. -95.-100.-106.-111. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -2. -3. -4. -5. -7. -5. -2. 2. 5. 7. 8. 8. 6. 5. 4. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -5. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. PERSISTENCE -4. -6. -6. -5. -3. -1. 1. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 4. 4. 3. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -1. 0. 1. 2. 4. 4. 6. 7. 9. 10. 10. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. -10. -12. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 1. 2. 3. 3. 1. -0. -6. -11. -18. -22. -24. -24. -27. -29. -29. -29. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. 3. 3. 3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 6. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 5. 5. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -6. -9. -11. -16. -27. -38. -51. -65. -81. -92. -97. -99.-105.-112.-119.-126. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 125. LAT, LON: 17.0 113.4 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP132014 MARIE 08/25/14 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 19.1 30.0 to 135.0 0.00 0.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -15.0 -20.0 to 40.0 0.08 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 9.0 17.2 to 1.6 0.52 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 68.6 -30.0 to 145.0 0.56 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 145.2 742.0 to -74.0 0.73 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 125.0 25.0 to 120.0 0.00 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 6.6 34.4 to 2.3 0.87 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 11.0 3.0 to 94.0 0.09 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.1 2.0 to -2.0 0.47 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.7 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 4.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.3% 0.8% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.6% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP132014 MARIE 08/25/14 06 UTC ## ## PASSED SCREENING STEP, MIGHT BE ANNULAR, CALCULATE AHI FROM DISCRIMINANT ANALYSIS ## ## AHI= 1 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##