* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * CRISTOBAL AL042014 08/25/14 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 40 41 42 44 47 50 56 62 68 74 76 81 69 61 58 46 34 V (KT) LAND 40 41 42 44 47 50 56 62 68 74 76 81 69 61 58 46 34 V (KT) LGEM 40 41 41 42 44 46 49 52 55 60 66 70 61 49 43 39 37 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 13 19 20 18 14 19 13 12 9 12 28 48 64 43 43 36 33 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 3 6 2 2 5 5 5 3 -2 0 8 0 -4 -5 -4 -6 SHEAR DIR 338 340 353 359 357 336 306 321 248 228 237 249 238 223 198 219 251 SST (C) 29.3 29.3 29.3 29.3 29.3 29.5 28.6 28.3 27.6 27.1 27.5 26.8 24.3 16.9 15.7 13.3 12.7 POT. INT. (KT) 154 154 154 154 155 159 145 141 132 127 133 126 105 77 75 72 71 ADJ. POT. INT. 133 132 132 132 133 138 125 120 113 111 117 112 94 73 72 70 69 200 MB T (C) -51.7 -51.7 -51.8 -51.3 -51.2 -51.9 -51.6 -52.0 -51.4 -52.4 -52.1 -51.7 -51.0 -51.2 -52.1 -52.4 -53.0 200 MB VXT (C) 0.5 0.9 1.0 0.9 1.1 1.0 0.7 1.1 1.3 0.4 0.7 0.2 0.2 0.6 2.4 2.5 2.1 TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 9 10 10 8 9 8 9 7 6 4 2 1 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 67 62 57 53 46 40 36 36 38 42 31 29 32 46 48 58 62 MODEL VTX (KT) 17 17 18 19 19 20 22 23 24 26 27 33 30 29 33 28 22 850 MB ENV VOR 81 85 96 110 110 92 69 39 15 37 111 121 125 154 185 140 128 200 MB DIV 60 45 49 73 64 20 13 37 14 14 -12 4 -25 -13 34 69 74 700-850 TADV 3 5 4 4 3 5 3 1 4 0 -5 -31 -66 -15 10 -16 21 LAND (KM) 475 513 552 601 650 731 710 591 583 735 773 717 599 349 725 1242 1279 LAT (DEG N) 24.6 25.0 25.4 25.9 26.3 27.6 29.4 31.1 32.8 34.4 36.3 38.5 41.4 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 73.1 73.1 73.1 73.0 72.9 72.7 72.4 71.9 70.4 67.8 64.3 60.1 55.1 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 5 4 5 5 6 8 9 10 12 16 18 22 25 28 28 28 27 HEAT CONTENT 32 33 36 42 54 51 21 23 8 7 16 6 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):350/ 5 CX,CY: 0/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 761 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 27.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 46.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 4.5 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 8. 11. 14. 16. 18. 19. 19. 17. 14. 11. 8. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 3. 3. 0. -5. -15. -23. -29. -33. -35. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. -0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 7. 7. 7. 7. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. -6. -7. -8. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 4. 5. 7. 8. 15. 10. 8. 11. 4. -2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. 7. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 4. 7. 10. 16. 22. 28. 34. 36. 41. 29. 21. 18. 6. -6. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 40. LAT, LON: 24.6 73.1 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL042014 CRISTOBAL 08/25/14 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -45.0 to 30.0 0.60 3.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 16.9 25.9 to 2.2 0.38 0.9 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 39.4 0.0 to 147.0 0.27 0.7 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 27.1 33.3 to 3.1 0.21 0.4 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 40.0 25.0 to 125.0 0.42 0.7 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 2.1 2.6 to -2.7 0.10 0.1 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 191.4 814.0 to -65.0 0.71 1.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 92.5 30.0 to 128.0 0.64 0.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 58.2 -28.0 to 171.0 0.43 0.4 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 17.8 95.0 to 0.0 0.81 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.8 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.1 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.2 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 3% is 1.1 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 3.8% 12.0% 8.1% 5.7% 2.6% 7.3% 9.0% 12.3% Logistic: 0.8% 2.7% 1.7% 1.0% 0.2% 0.5% 0.4% 0.1% Bayesian: 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% Consensus: 1.6% 4.9% 3.3% 2.2% 0.9% 2.6% 3.1% 4.1% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL042014 CRISTOBAL 08/25/14 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL042014 CRISTOBAL 08/25/2014 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 40 41 42 44 47 50 56 62 68 74 76 81 69 61 58 46 34 18HR AGO 40 39 40 42 45 48 54 60 66 72 74 79 67 59 56 44 32 12HR AGO 40 37 36 38 41 44 50 56 62 68 70 75 63 55 52 40 28 6HR AGO 40 34 31 30 33 36 42 48 54 60 62 67 55 47 44 32 20 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT