* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * MARIE EP132014 08/24/14 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 105 114 120 125 129 131 124 113 99 84 70 55 46 36 27 18 N/A V (KT) LAND 105 114 120 125 129 131 124 113 99 84 70 55 46 36 27 18 N/A V (KT) LGEM 105 114 120 124 127 128 117 98 79 62 50 40 34 28 23 18 15 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 15 11 11 15 11 15 15 15 8 5 3 0 2 6 12 15 18 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 1 0 -2 0 2 2 1 3 -2 -2 3 5 7 8 0 -6 SHEAR DIR 6 15 40 30 30 21 45 32 26 356 256 6 191 180 197 225 230 SST (C) 29.0 28.9 28.9 28.7 28.8 29.0 27.5 26.6 25.2 23.3 21.6 21.4 21.8 22.0 21.7 21.4 21.5 POT. INT. (KT) 155 154 154 151 152 155 139 130 116 96 78 76 79 80 77 73 74 200 MB T (C) -51.7 -51.8 -51.2 -50.5 -50.5 -49.9 -49.7 -49.2 -49.1 -49.1 -49.0 -49.0 -49.1 -49.3 -49.5 -50.0 -51.0 200 MB VXT (C) 0.7 0.8 1.0 1.1 1.2 1.1 1.4 1.2 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.0 0.7 0.8 0.8 0.6 0.1 TH_E DEV (C) 7 8 7 8 8 8 7 6 4 2 1 0 0 0 1 1 1 700-500 MB RH 84 81 80 79 77 77 75 73 70 67 62 59 49 44 34 28 23 MODEL VTX (KT) 34 37 39 42 45 50 49 48 44 39 35 30 27 23 18 13 9 850 MB ENV VOR 60 63 72 79 87 106 132 157 126 111 94 67 52 45 47 39 38 200 MB DIV 89 102 89 102 80 127 82 38 -10 -14 7 14 -8 18 -2 -13 -18 700-850 TADV -12 -8 -6 -2 -2 4 2 -8 -4 0 4 3 5 1 0 -5 -21 LAND (KM) 601 668 707 697 701 714 740 786 867 968 1126 1190 1187 1158 1134 1049 1015 LAT (DEG N) 16.0 16.4 16.7 17.1 17.4 18.4 19.6 20.9 22.2 23.5 24.8 26.2 27.4 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 109.4 110.5 111.5 112.4 113.3 114.9 116.8 118.7 121.0 123.4 125.8 128.0 129.5 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 12 11 10 9 9 10 11 12 12 13 12 11 8 6 6 5 5 HEAT CONTENT 19 22 28 25 21 15 5 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 13 CX,CY: -11/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 80 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 609 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 3.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 100.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 41.5 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. -0. -4. -11. -19. -27. -34. -41. -48. -53. -58. -63. -69. -75. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -2. -4. -5. -6. -7. -6. -4. -1. 1. 3. 5. 5. 5. 5. 4. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. PERSISTENCE 6. 9. 9. 8. 5. 2. -1. -3. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -4. -4. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -1. -0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 8. 9. 9. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. -0. -1. -3. -4. -5. -6. -8. -9. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 1. 2. 5. 8. 11. 14. 16. 12. 6. 0. -6. -9. -13. -16. -20. -21. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. RI POTENTIAL 1. 3. 5. 7. 11. 10. 5. 1. -1. -3. -5. -6. -6. -5. -5. -5. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 9. 15. 20. 24. 26. 19. 8. -6. -21. -35. -50. -59. -69. -78. -87. -96. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 105. LAT, LON: 16.0 109.4 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP132014 MARIE 08/24/14 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 48.3 30.0 to 135.0 0.17 1.6 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 25.0 -20.0 to 40.0 0.75 7.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 12.5 17.2 to 1.6 0.30 2.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 92.4 -30.0 to 145.0 0.70 5.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 10.2 742.0 to -74.0 0.90 -5.9 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 105.0 25.0 to 120.0 0.24 1.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 3.5 34.4 to 2.3 0.96 4.9 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 23.0 3.0 to 94.0 0.22 0.7 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 2.1 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.1 2.0 to -2.0 0.51 0.5 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 20% is 3.1 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 23% is 1.8 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 20% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 2.6 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.8 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 19.8% 22.9% 19.6% 16.2% 11.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 26.7% 36.3% 10.6% 6.9% 3.7% 3.7% 0.7% 0.0% Bayesian: 41.7% 28.4% 27.2% 25.6% 7.8% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 29.4% 29.2% 19.1% 16.2% 7.8% 1.4% 0.2% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP132014 MARIE 08/24/14 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##