* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * MARIE EP132014 08/24/14 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 90 97 103 111 119 128 129 120 106 90 74 59 48 39 31 23 N/A V (KT) LAND 90 97 103 111 119 128 129 120 106 90 74 59 48 39 31 23 N/A V (KT) LGEM 90 97 103 109 115 124 123 107 88 71 55 43 35 30 24 19 15 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 17 16 11 9 11 8 12 18 15 8 7 4 2 1 8 12 18 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 4 3 0 -2 3 4 3 4 0 -2 -1 9 7 13 7 -3 SHEAR DIR 356 2 19 29 27 29 39 42 50 23 3 330 10 338 127 193 212 SST (C) 29.4 29.1 29.3 29.5 29.2 28.6 27.3 26.5 25.7 24.3 22.7 21.9 22.1 21.9 22.4 21.8 22.0 POT. INT. (KT) 159 156 158 160 157 150 137 129 121 107 90 81 82 80 84 78 80 200 MB T (C) -51.3 -51.6 -51.6 -51.1 -50.5 -50.4 -49.2 -49.6 -48.4 -49.2 -48.6 -48.9 -48.8 -48.9 -49.2 -49.6 -50.4 200 MB VXT (C) 0.5 0.7 0.9 1.1 1.3 1.1 1.2 1.4 1.2 1.3 1.3 1.3 1.1 1.1 1.0 0.5 0.2 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 8 7 8 8 7 7 5 4 2 1 1 1 1 1 2 700-500 MB RH 84 83 81 80 79 78 77 75 70 65 63 60 53 46 38 30 21 MODEL VTX (KT) 33 35 37 39 42 46 50 49 46 42 38 33 29 26 21 17 12 850 MB ENV VOR 59 57 56 66 74 91 119 144 147 131 124 97 72 57 54 35 23 200 MB DIV 117 81 69 82 116 101 128 38 50 -4 3 -21 11 5 10 -1 -18 700-850 TADV -8 -9 -6 -7 -3 -1 5 4 -7 -3 3 -1 7 1 -3 -7 -20 LAND (KM) 542 599 670 732 726 716 739 732 818 888 1017 1192 1190 1164 1151 1100 1106 LAT (DEG N) 15.5 15.8 16.1 16.4 16.7 17.6 18.8 20.2 21.4 22.7 23.9 25.1 26.4 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 108.1 109.2 110.3 111.3 112.2 113.9 115.6 117.4 119.4 121.8 124.2 126.6 128.3 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 12 11 11 10 9 9 11 11 12 13 12 12 9 7 7 6 6 HEAT CONTENT 27 21 25 34 36 17 4 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):300/ 12 CX,CY: -9/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 75 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 617 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 5.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 100.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 66.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 3. 1. -4. -10. -15. -20. -25. -30. -34. -39. -44. -49. -54. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -2. -4. -4. -5. -4. -2. -1. -1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. PERSISTENCE 4. 5. 5. 5. 3. 2. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 8. 10. 10. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. -0. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -8. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 1. 2. 4. 7. 10. 16. 19. 18. 11. 5. -0. -5. -8. -12. -15. -17. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. RI POTENTIAL 2. 5. 8. 13. 19. 18. 10. 3. -2. -7. -10. -12. -12. -11. -11. -11. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 7. 13. 21. 29. 38. 39. 30. 16. 0. -16. -31. -42. -51. -59. -67. -76. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 90. LAT, LON: 15.5 108.1 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP132014 MARIE 08/24/14 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 68.0 30.0 to 135.0 0.36 3.4 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 15.0 -20.0 to 40.0 0.58 5.6 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 12.9 17.2 to 1.6 0.27 2.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 93.0 -30.0 to 145.0 0.70 5.2 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : -37.4 742.0 to -74.0 0.96 -6.5 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 90.0 25.0 to 120.0 0.48 3.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 5.4 34.4 to 2.3 0.90 4.7 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 28.6 3.0 to 94.0 0.28 0.9 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 2.1 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.1 2.0 to -2.0 0.47 0.4 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 16% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 24% is 1.9 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 21% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 2.8 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 3.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 15% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 15.9% 24.4% 21.1% 17.2% 12.8% 15.4% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 20.7% 48.1% 15.1% 9.6% 4.3% 8.5% 1.1% 0.1% Bayesian: 16.4% 68.1% 61.3% 57.7% 26.1% 33.7% 1.1% 0.0% Consensus: 17.6% 46.9% 32.5% 28.2% 14.4% 19.2% 0.7% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP132014 MARIE 08/24/14 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##