* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * LOWELL EP122014 08/23/14 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 35 31 27 25 22 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 35 31 27 25 22 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 35 31 28 25 23 21 18 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 8 6 9 12 12 18 22 25 28 34 37 41 36 29 26 27 27 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 0 -2 -2 -1 -2 -4 -3 -1 -3 0 -6 -1 -8 -3 -9 -6 SHEAR DIR 269 264 243 253 272 231 249 236 233 228 234 227 229 231 225 224 234 SST (C) 21.2 21.0 22.1 23.0 23.0 22.5 22.1 22.6 22.9 23.3 23.8 24.2 24.7 25.0 25.6 25.5 25.9 POT. INT. (KT) 72 70 81 90 90 86 82 87 91 96 101 105 109 112 119 118 121 200 MB T (C) -51.5 -51.4 -51.3 -51.3 -51.3 -51.1 -50.6 -50.3 -50.1 -49.9 -49.3 -49.4 -49.5 -49.7 -49.6 -49.6 -49.2 200 MB VXT (C) 1.2 0.6 0.4 0.5 0.4 0.5 0.3 0.6 0.4 0.9 0.7 1.1 1.7 1.6 1.4 1.5 1.3 TH_E DEV (C) 3 3 3 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 3 4 4 4 4 4 700-500 MB RH 53 53 51 49 49 47 45 43 43 41 40 36 34 33 31 29 29 MODEL VTX (KT) 25 24 23 22 20 18 16 13 12 10 9 9 8 8 6 7 6 850 MB ENV VOR 52 56 77 92 88 109 89 70 55 44 19 14 -17 -12 -30 -25 -27 200 MB DIV -2 8 16 17 10 31 -7 11 -9 10 7 -20 -16 -24 -12 0 -4 700-850 TADV -2 0 1 0 0 1 0 4 5 6 2 3 3 3 5 7 3 LAND (KM) 1219 1255 1294 1320 1319 1348 1416 1505 1625 1702 1843 1724 1620 1545 1440 1321 1233 LAT (DEG N) 23.5 24.0 24.4 24.8 25.1 25.6 26.1 26.6 27.2 28.0 28.7 29.5 30.1 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 126.2 126.8 127.4 128.0 128.5 129.7 131.3 133.0 135.0 137.2 139.5 141.7 143.6 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 7 7 7 6 6 7 8 8 10 11 10 10 8 7 8 9 8 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):310/ 7 CX,CY: -4/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 570 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 6.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 5.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -4. -2. -2. -1. -1. -2. -4. -7. -8. -9. -9. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 4. 1. -5. -12. -20. -25. -30. -33. -36. -42. -46. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 10. 10. 8. 7. 7. PERSISTENCE -2. -4. -4. -5. -4. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 4. 4. 6. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -6. -7. -8. -9. -10. -10. -10. -10. -10. -11. -12. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -7. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -9. -14. -18. -20. -21. -20. -20. -18. -18. -16. -15. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -3. -5. -7. -9. -10. -11. -13. -13. -14. -13. -11. -11. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -4. -8. -10. -13. -17. -22. -29. -37. -45. -54. -60. -66. -70. -72. -73. -73. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 23.5 126.2 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP122014 LOWELL 08/23/14 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 45.9 30.0 to 135.0 0.15 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -10.0 -20.0 to 40.0 0.17 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 9.5 17.2 to 1.6 0.49 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 9.8 -30.0 to 145.0 0.23 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 278.2 742.0 to -74.0 0.57 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 35.0 25.0 to 120.0 0.31 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 6.1 34.4 to 2.3 0.88 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.0 3.0 to 94.0 0.00 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.6 2.0 to -2.0 0.35 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 0.9 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 11.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.0% 3.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP122014 LOWELL 08/23/14 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##