* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * KARINA EP112014 08/23/14 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 70 70 68 64 62 54 48 40 32 28 24 21 18 16 N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 70 70 68 64 62 54 48 40 32 28 24 21 18 16 N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 70 71 70 67 63 57 50 42 36 31 27 23 21 19 18 N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 10 7 8 12 13 16 17 9 17 11 8 4 9 7 13 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 0 0 2 0 2 0 -2 -2 0 -2 0 -1 3 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 99 98 100 92 86 87 86 82 110 148 158 110 82 92 94 N/A N/A SST (C) 25.6 25.4 25.4 25.7 25.9 25.8 26.0 25.8 25.1 24.2 24.0 23.8 24.1 24.4 24.3 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 118 115 116 119 121 120 121 119 111 102 101 99 102 105 104 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.2 -52.0 -52.3 -52.2 -51.5 -51.8 -51.0 -50.8 -49.8 -49.4 -48.8 -48.8 -48.5 -49.0 -49.3 N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.5 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.2 0.7 0.0 0.0 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 5 5 5 6 6 6 5 4 3 3 3 4 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 48 50 51 51 51 52 49 44 38 34 30 27 26 22 19 N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 19 19 18 17 18 16 16 13 10 8 7 5 5 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 36 41 36 57 75 93 90 92 71 46 44 37 56 51 33 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 30 23 14 14 22 23 40 -15 -2 0 0 -14 2 -8 -25 N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 1 1 0 0 0 -1 -3 -1 -2 0 2 0 0 1 1 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 2130 2167 2205 2230 2148 1979 1837 1732 1688 1710 1794 1883 1974 1990 1846 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 16.0 16.4 16.8 17.2 17.6 18.2 18.8 19.5 20.2 20.9 21.4 21.8 21.9 xx.x xx.x N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 135.0 134.5 134.1 133.5 132.8 131.3 130.1 129.4 129.4 130.1 131.3 132.9 134.4 xxx.x xxx.x N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 6 6 6 7 8 7 6 4 4 5 7 8 6 7 6 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 35/ 6 CX,CY: 3/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 60 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 566 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 56.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.6 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL -1. -1. -2. -2. -4. -7. -9. -12. -15. -18. -21. -24. -27. -30. -32. -35. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -2. -3. -3. -3. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. -6. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -5. -6. -8. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -7. -13. -15. -17. -18. -17. -15. -14. -13. -11. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -2. -1. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -3. -3. -2. -0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -0. -2. -5. -8. -16. -22. -30. -38. -42. -46. -49. -52. -54. -55. -53. -50. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 70. LAT, LON: 16.0 135.0 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP112014 KARINA 08/23/14 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 47.8 30.0 to 135.0 0.17 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 10.0 -20.0 to 40.0 0.50 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 10.0 17.2 to 1.6 0.46 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 20.6 -30.0 to 145.0 0.29 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 449.8 742.0 to -74.0 0.36 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 70.0 25.0 to 120.0 0.80 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 17.1 34.4 to 2.3 0.54 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.0 3.0 to 94.0 0.00 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 7.1 56.6 to 0.0 0.87 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.3 2.0 to -2.0 0.41 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 18% is 1.4 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 17.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.3% 1.4% 0.8% 0.4% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.5% 6.4% 0.3% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP112014 KARINA 08/23/14 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##