* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * KARINA EP112014 08/22/14 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 55 56 56 56 54 52 49 46 46 44 42 38 32 29 25 27 29 V (KT) LAND 55 56 56 56 54 52 49 46 46 44 42 38 32 29 25 27 29 V (KT) LGEM 55 56 55 55 53 49 45 41 37 34 31 28 24 21 18 N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 5 11 14 9 13 15 13 14 7 8 2 8 7 2 3 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 0 0 -1 1 0 1 -1 0 -1 0 -1 2 0 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 67 90 83 59 71 68 84 95 116 110 64 161 223 198 47 N/A N/A SST (C) 26.6 26.2 25.8 25.4 25.4 26.0 26.1 26.1 26.1 25.5 24.2 23.7 23.5 23.8 24.4 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 127 123 119 115 116 122 123 123 122 116 103 98 96 99 105 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.6 -52.4 -51.8 -51.3 -51.5 -51.1 -51.8 -51.1 -51.2 -50.5 -50.3 -49.4 -49.4 -49.0 -49.1 N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.5 0.4 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 6 5 5 5 5 5 5 6 6 6 5 4 3 4 4 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 48 46 49 48 49 54 54 57 50 41 36 31 29 25 25 N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 18 19 20 20 19 19 17 16 15 13 12 11 9 7 5 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 22 27 32 42 20 35 38 40 52 45 34 22 19 56 65 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 42 33 32 43 33 31 41 31 13 8 5 4 -10 -12 -24 N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 0 0 0 1 -2 -1 0 -4 -1 -3 -1 3 3 7 9 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 2090 2115 2141 2171 2201 2191 2038 1902 1796 1733 1719 1756 1816 1932 2042 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 14.9 15.3 15.6 16.1 16.5 17.2 17.7 18.2 18.9 19.9 20.9 21.8 22.2 xx.x xx.x N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 135.7 135.4 135.0 134.6 134.2 133.0 131.6 130.4 129.7 129.7 130.2 131.1 132.4 xxx.x xxx.x N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 4 5 6 6 6 7 7 6 4 5 6 6 6 7 7 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 85/ 4 CX,CY: 4/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 55 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 597 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 77.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 6.4 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -4. -8. -11. -13. -15. -17. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 4. 4. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -7. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 0. 1. -1. -3. -5. -7. -9. -10. -12. -12. -14. -12. -11. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -5. -5. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 5. 6. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 1. 1. 1. -1. -3. -6. -9. -9. -11. -13. -17. -23. -26. -30. -28. -26. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 55. LAT, LON: 14.9 135.7 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP112014 KARINA 08/22/14 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 65.1 30.0 to 135.0 0.33 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -20.0 to 40.0 0.33 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 10.5 17.2 to 1.6 0.43 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 36.6 -30.0 to 145.0 0.38 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 361.4 742.0 to -74.0 0.47 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 55.0 25.0 to 120.0 0.92 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.0 34.4 to 2.3 0.64 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.4 3.0 to 94.0 0.00 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 7.3 56.6 to 0.0 0.87 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.9 2.0 to -2.0 0.28 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 21% is 1.6 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 20.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 2.1% 4.4% 2.4% 1.1% 0.7% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.7% 8.3% 0.8% 0.4% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP112014 KARINA 08/22/14 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##