* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * LOWELL EP122014 08/22/14 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 55 52 48 44 40 34 29 21 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 55 52 48 44 40 34 29 21 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 55 51 47 44 41 35 32 28 26 24 21 19 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 7 5 2 6 8 5 4 5 15 16 25 30 37 43 43 35 28 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -1 0 -3 -3 1 -2 1 -3 -2 -5 -5 -3 -6 -4 -7 -2 SHEAR DIR 127 157 199 198 228 262 282 258 253 249 230 236 229 236 225 218 216 SST (C) 25.1 24.6 24.4 23.8 22.1 21.8 22.7 22.6 22.5 22.8 23.3 23.7 23.9 24.1 24.4 25.1 25.4 POT. INT. (KT) 113 108 106 100 82 79 88 87 86 90 95 99 102 104 107 115 118 200 MB T (C) -51.4 -51.4 -51.2 -50.8 -50.9 -51.0 -50.5 -50.7 -50.5 -50.4 -50.3 -50.1 -49.8 -49.6 -49.7 -50.2 -50.4 200 MB VXT (C) 1.4 1.6 1.5 1.3 1.4 1.1 0.7 0.8 0.7 0.5 0.6 0.5 0.7 0.7 1.4 0.8 1.0 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 4 4 3 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 3 4 5 5 4 700-500 MB RH 55 55 52 51 51 50 45 44 40 41 41 40 38 34 32 33 32 MODEL VTX (KT) 36 35 33 31 30 28 25 21 19 17 15 13 12 10 8 6 4 850 MB ENV VOR 104 98 85 76 71 69 100 115 118 85 60 49 31 10 -11 -20 -35 200 MB DIV 41 7 -3 -2 -25 26 10 -24 5 -6 6 6 5 -2 -32 -15 -15 700-850 TADV 0 2 6 4 0 0 4 1 7 6 11 15 18 19 12 7 4 LAND (KM) 1099 1110 1127 1161 1202 1275 1291 1312 1333 1387 1424 1541 1672 1817 1748 1631 1557 LAT (DEG N) 21.2 21.8 22.3 22.8 23.3 24.4 25.4 26.1 27.0 28.0 28.9 29.6 30.2 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 123.1 123.8 124.4 125.2 125.9 127.2 128.5 129.8 131.1 132.7 134.4 136.4 138.5 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 8 8 8 9 8 8 7 7 8 9 9 10 10 10 10 11 12 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):320/ 7 CX,CY: -3/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 65 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 537 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 75.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -8. -9. -11. -14. -15. -17. -20. -23. -25. -28. -29. -31. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 6. 4. 1. -3. -8. -14. -21. -28. -33. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 8. 8. 8. 8. 7. 6. 6. PERSISTENCE -2. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. 7. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. -9. -9. -9. -10. -11. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -7. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -3. -4. -6. -10. -18. -23. -26. -29. -30. -29. -28. -27. -27. -25. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 5. 6. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 5. 5. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -3. -7. -11. -15. -21. -26. -34. -39. -43. -49. -54. -59. -65. -71. -76. -76. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 55. LAT, LON: 21.2 123.1 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP122014 LOWELL 08/22/14 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 46.9 30.0 to 135.0 0.16 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -10.0 -20.0 to 40.0 0.17 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 5.6 17.2 to 1.6 0.74 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 3.6 -30.0 to 145.0 0.19 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 415.8 742.0 to -74.0 0.40 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 55.0 25.0 to 120.0 0.92 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.0 34.4 to 2.3 0.57 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.0 3.0 to 94.0 0.00 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.4 2.0 to -2.0 0.59 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 1.4 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 17.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.2% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.1% 5.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP122014 LOWELL 08/22/14 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##