* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * LOWELL EP122014 08/21/14 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 55 58 60 60 60 56 49 42 34 27 19 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 55 58 60 60 60 56 49 42 34 27 19 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 55 57 59 59 57 52 46 38 33 28 25 22 20 19 18 17 16 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 2 10 6 7 6 7 5 3 7 10 13 16 20 23 22 30 35 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -5 -3 -4 -1 -2 -4 -2 -3 -3 -1 -5 -3 -7 -3 -6 -2 SHEAR DIR 93 209 170 106 120 153 174 293 264 265 250 241 252 234 238 236 240 SST (C) 26.4 26.3 26.1 25.7 25.4 24.6 22.5 21.2 21.8 22.2 22.3 22.5 22.9 23.3 23.8 24.0 24.2 POT. INT. (KT) 125 124 122 119 116 108 86 73 79 83 84 86 90 94 99 102 104 200 MB T (C) -51.3 -51.1 -50.9 -50.6 -50.1 -50.5 -50.0 -50.4 -50.2 -50.8 -50.6 -50.7 -50.2 -49.8 -49.3 -48.9 -48.9 200 MB VXT (C) 0.9 0.8 1.0 1.2 1.5 1.6 1.6 1.3 0.6 0.9 0.8 1.0 0.5 0.8 0.6 1.1 1.2 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 6 5 4 3 2 1 1 1 1 1 2 3 4 4 700-500 MB RH 70 65 63 62 60 55 51 55 57 55 48 46 42 42 38 37 39 MODEL VTX (KT) 38 39 40 39 38 36 32 30 27 23 20 19 16 16 14 13 12 850 MB ENV VOR 95 112 120 138 135 122 94 85 112 116 112 113 100 86 59 47 33 200 MB DIV 90 65 35 43 39 28 9 -20 18 14 -5 -6 11 5 6 0 -3 700-850 TADV 0 0 0 0 2 0 1 1 2 1 7 6 10 5 5 8 5 LAND (KM) 1121 1126 1119 1111 1107 1121 1171 1254 1307 1322 1363 1439 1534 1599 1691 1762 1838 LAT (DEG N) 19.4 19.8 20.1 20.6 21.0 22.0 23.2 24.2 25.1 25.9 26.6 27.1 27.6 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 121.5 121.8 122.1 122.6 123.0 124.1 125.5 126.9 128.3 129.7 131.1 132.6 134.2 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 4 4 5 6 6 8 8 8 7 7 7 8 8 8 7 8 8 HEAT CONTENT 2 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):320/ 4 CX,CY: -2/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 50 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 482 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 93.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 13.5 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 1. -0. -2. -6. -9. -11. -14. -17. -21. -24. -28. -30. -32. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 5. 7. 7. 7. 6. 5. 3. -0. -3. -8. -13. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -1. 0. 1. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 4. 4. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 7. 8. 9. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -8. -9. -9. -9. -11. -12. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 0. -1. -6. -10. -15. -21. -25. -25. -27. -24. -23. -22. -21. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 5. 6. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 3. 5. 5. 5. 1. -6. -13. -21. -28. -36. -39. -45. -47. -50. -52. -54. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 55. LAT, LON: 19.4 121.5 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP122014 LOWELL 08/21/14 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 66.2 30.0 to 135.0 0.34 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -20.0 to 40.0 0.42 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 6.3 17.2 to 1.6 0.70 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 54.4 -30.0 to 145.0 0.48 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 242.2 742.0 to -74.0 0.61 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 55.0 25.0 to 120.0 0.92 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.1 34.4 to 2.3 0.57 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.6 3.0 to 94.0 0.00 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.4 2.0 to -2.0 0.40 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 24% is 1.9 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 24.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 3.5% 7.9% 2.4% 1.9% 0.6% 1.8% 1.3% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.2% 10.7% 0.8% 0.6% 0.2% 0.6% 0.4% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP122014 LOWELL 08/21/14 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##