* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * LOWELL EP122014 08/20/14 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 45 48 51 53 54 54 49 42 35 29 25 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 45 48 51 53 54 54 49 42 35 29 25 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 45 46 47 49 49 47 43 36 30 25 22 20 18 16 15 N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 8 7 5 7 8 9 8 9 5 7 4 12 14 13 14 17 22 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -3 -1 -3 -4 2 -2 -3 -5 0 -4 -2 -2 -4 -3 -5 0 SHEAR DIR 90 75 94 138 132 67 72 133 250 217 234 232 224 225 232 243 247 SST (C) 26.4 26.4 26.4 26.2 26.0 25.3 24.3 21.8 21.0 21.8 22.2 22.3 22.5 23.0 23.3 23.8 24.0 POT. INT. (KT) 125 125 125 123 121 115 105 79 71 79 82 83 86 91 94 100 101 200 MB T (C) -52.1 -51.7 -51.0 -51.2 -51.3 -49.9 -50.6 -50.4 -50.6 -50.6 -50.9 -50.9 -51.0 -50.9 -50.8 -50.3 -49.8 200 MB VXT (C) 0.6 0.6 0.8 0.8 1.1 0.9 1.3 0.8 0.6 0.6 0.8 0.6 0.6 0.5 0.3 0.5 0.7 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 6 5 4 3 3 2 1 1 0 0 1 2 3 3 700-500 MB RH 74 70 69 64 63 60 59 57 57 55 55 55 56 52 49 44 44 MODEL VTX (KT) 32 34 35 35 35 35 31 29 27 24 22 19 17 14 13 12 12 850 MB ENV VOR 73 97 123 136 133 147 126 103 87 125 130 117 112 98 76 61 53 200 MB DIV 72 94 102 67 26 50 -43 30 -3 14 11 6 3 12 -5 2 13 700-850 TADV 0 -1 0 0 0 -2 -1 0 0 1 1 4 4 1 0 2 1 LAND (KM) 1113 1115 1118 1117 1108 1092 1110 1164 1239 1262 1274 1325 1403 1508 1565 1679 1784 LAT (DEG N) 19.0 19.3 19.6 20.0 20.3 21.2 22.3 23.5 24.6 25.6 26.4 26.9 27.4 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 121.1 121.4 121.6 121.9 122.2 123.0 124.2 125.6 126.9 128.3 129.6 130.9 132.4 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 4 4 4 4 5 7 8 8 8 8 7 7 8 8 8 8 7 HEAT CONTENT 2 2 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):310/ 4 CX,CY: -2/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 480 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 93.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 19.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 0. -1. -3. -6. -10. -14. -17. -19. -21. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. 4. 3. 1. -2. -5. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -2. -1. -0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -7. -8. -9. -10. -10. -12. -13. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. -0. -3. -7. -11. -14. -17. -18. -19. -18. -18. -16. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 5. 5. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. RI POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 3. 6. 8. 9. 9. 4. -3. -10. -16. -20. -26. -32. -36. -37. -39. -38. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 45. LAT, LON: 19.0 121.1 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP122014 LOWELL 08/20/14 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 78.8 30.0 to 135.0 0.46 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -20.0 to 40.0 0.33 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 7.2 17.2 to 1.6 0.64 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 72.2 -30.0 to 145.0 0.58 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 165.6 742.0 to -74.0 0.71 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 45.0 25.0 to 120.0 0.61 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 17.2 34.4 to 2.3 0.54 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 1.0 3.0 to 94.0 0.00 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.3 2.0 to -2.0 0.41 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 22% is 1.7 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 21.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 2.3% 7.8% 2.2% 1.4% 0.5% 2.0% 2.1% 0.1% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.8% 9.8% 0.7% 0.5% 0.2% 0.7% 0.7% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP122014 LOWELL 08/20/14 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##