* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * LOWELL EP122014 08/20/14 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 45 48 53 58 62 65 64 60 53 43 33 26 21 17 N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 45 48 53 58 62 65 64 60 53 43 33 26 21 17 N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 45 46 48 50 52 53 51 47 40 32 26 23 20 19 18 18 16 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 9 10 10 11 9 7 9 3 4 7 10 13 15 15 21 22 16 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -2 -2 -2 -1 -2 0 0 0 -4 -2 -1 -4 -5 -1 -1 3 SHEAR DIR 67 87 69 77 67 116 82 129 2 325 294 261 253 262 255 265 252 SST (C) 26.6 26.6 26.6 26.6 26.5 26.0 25.2 24.3 21.6 20.8 21.5 22.2 22.5 22.7 23.0 23.1 23.4 POT. INT. (KT) 128 127 127 127 126 122 114 105 77 69 76 83 86 87 90 91 95 200 MB T (C) -51.4 -51.6 -51.8 -51.0 -50.6 -51.0 -49.8 -50.2 -49.6 -50.1 -50.3 -50.8 -50.7 -50.7 -50.2 -50.1 -49.8 200 MB VXT (C) 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.7 0.9 0.9 1.8 1.3 1.4 1.0 0.7 1.0 1.0 1.1 1.1 0.9 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 5 5 5 4 3 2 1 0 0 0 1 2 2 3 700-500 MB RH 77 75 74 73 71 65 59 57 59 60 61 58 55 50 43 43 38 MODEL VTX (KT) 30 31 32 35 37 36 36 35 33 28 25 22 20 18 18 15 12 850 MB ENV VOR 80 88 93 113 129 133 141 118 99 107 113 103 93 114 101 86 76 200 MB DIV 65 73 81 112 59 17 47 -41 34 -10 16 18 31 0 9 -17 0 700-850 TADV -1 0 0 -1 0 -1 -2 1 1 0 7 6 2 2 5 6 7 LAND (KM) 1099 1102 1106 1108 1112 1083 1070 1090 1159 1253 1248 1274 1321 1385 1419 1503 1589 LAT (DEG N) 18.5 18.8 19.1 19.4 19.7 20.6 21.7 22.9 24.0 25.1 26.1 27.0 27.8 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 120.5 120.8 121.1 121.3 121.6 122.2 123.2 124.4 125.8 127.3 128.8 130.3 131.7 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 6 4 4 4 5 6 7 8 9 8 8 7 7 6 6 5 6 HEAT CONTENT 3 3 3 2 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):315/ 7 CX,CY: -4/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 473 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 10.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 97.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 31.9 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 4. 2. -0. -3. -7. -11. -15. -17. -20. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 5. 5. 3. 2. -1. -5. -7. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 7. 9. 10. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -7. -8. -9. -9. -10. -11. -13. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 1. 2. 3. 5. 5. 6. 6. 4. -2. -7. -11. -11. -13. -12. -13. -14. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 5. 5. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. RI POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 6. 3. 1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 3. 8. 13. 17. 20. 19. 15. 8. -2. -12. -19. -24. -28. -30. -34. -37. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 45. LAT, LON: 18.5 120.5 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP122014 LOWELL 08/20/14 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 81.9 30.0 to 135.0 0.49 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -20.0 to 40.0 0.33 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 9.9 17.2 to 1.6 0.47 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 78.0 -30.0 to 145.0 0.62 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 103.4 742.0 to -74.0 0.78 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 45.0 25.0 to 120.0 0.61 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 10.4 34.4 to 2.3 0.75 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 2.6 3.0 to 94.0 0.00 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.4 2.0 to -2.0 0.39 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 23% is 1.9 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 11.7% 23.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.6% 8.6% 1.8% 1.3% 0.4% 2.5% 2.8% 0.1% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 4.4% 10.6% 0.6% 0.4% 0.1% 0.8% 0.9% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP122014 LOWELL 08/20/14 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##