* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * LOWELL EP122014 08/19/14 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 45 50 55 59 63 68 69 67 62 57 50 41 34 30 28 28 27 V (KT) LAND 45 50 55 59 63 68 69 67 62 57 50 41 34 30 28 28 27 V (KT) LGEM 45 50 54 57 59 62 61 57 51 45 37 30 26 23 21 20 20 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 10 10 12 17 14 10 10 2 4 4 7 10 12 8 14 13 17 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 0 -4 -3 4 1 6 0 -1 -3 -1 0 -1 -4 -1 -4 SHEAR DIR 74 84 90 73 74 60 91 33 76 72 326 306 275 268 284 268 265 SST (C) 27.4 27.0 26.8 26.7 26.6 26.6 26.3 25.5 24.9 23.1 21.0 21.0 22.0 22.3 22.6 22.8 23.1 POT. INT. (KT) 136 132 129 128 127 127 125 117 111 93 71 71 81 83 86 88 92 200 MB T (C) -52.1 -51.9 -51.2 -51.3 -51.5 -50.4 -50.7 -49.7 -50.1 -49.6 -49.8 -49.9 -50.4 -50.4 -50.6 -50.6 -50.7 200 MB VXT (C) 0.9 0.6 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.7 1.0 1.1 1.7 1.2 1.4 1.2 1.2 1.0 1.3 1.1 0.9 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 6 6 5 5 4 4 3 2 1 0 1 1 2 2 700-500 MB RH 79 79 80 77 77 72 64 61 60 60 63 66 69 61 53 43 41 MODEL VTX (KT) 27 29 30 31 32 35 35 34 32 30 27 23 20 18 16 16 14 850 MB ENV VOR 78 83 83 85 92 128 137 129 99 75 93 87 83 85 93 86 76 200 MB DIV 81 81 77 65 88 89 11 47 -7 34 -3 18 -4 16 -10 -7 -2 700-850 TADV -4 -2 0 -1 -2 0 -4 1 -1 0 1 1 8 0 1 1 1 LAND (KM) 1102 1106 1113 1114 1117 1110 1112 1077 1085 1119 1210 1247 1273 1340 1425 1524 1628 LAT (DEG N) 17.5 17.8 18.1 18.4 18.7 19.3 20.1 21.2 22.3 23.5 24.6 25.7 26.5 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 119.5 119.9 120.3 120.6 120.9 121.3 122.0 122.8 123.9 125.1 126.6 128.2 129.7 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 5 5 4 4 4 4 6 7 7 8 9 8 8 7 6 6 6 HEAT CONTENT 9 6 5 3 3 3 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):300/ 6 CX,CY: -4/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 513 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 92.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 30.4 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 7. 7. 5. 1. -3. -7. -11. -13. -16. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 2. 0. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 1. 3. 4. 6. 8. 10. 11. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. -11. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 6. 4. -1. -6. -8. -10. -11. -10. -11. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. RI POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 7. 6. 3. 1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 5. 10. 14. 18. 23. 24. 22. 18. 12. 5. -4. -11. -15. -17. -17. -18. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 45. LAT, LON: 17.5 119.5 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP122014 LOWELL 08/19/14 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 85.3 30.0 to 135.0 0.53 4.9 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 10.0 -20.0 to 40.0 0.50 4.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 12.6 17.2 to 1.6 0.30 2.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 78.4 -30.0 to 145.0 0.62 4.5 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 65.8 742.0 to -74.0 0.83 -5.5 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 45.0 25.0 to 120.0 0.61 3.9 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 17.1 34.4 to 2.3 0.54 2.8 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 5.2 3.0 to 94.0 0.02 0.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 2.1 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.7 2.0 to -2.0 0.33 0.3 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 21% is 1.7 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 20% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 2.6 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 18% is 2.6 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 13.2% 21.0% 19.9% 16.1% 10.4% 17.6% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 3.1% 9.4% 2.2% 1.4% 0.5% 2.9% 5.2% 0.3% Bayesian: 0.7% 0.8% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 5.7% 10.4% 7.4% 5.8% 3.6% 6.8% 1.7% 0.1% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP122014 LOWELL 08/19/14 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##