* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * KARINA EP112014 08/19/14 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 45 43 43 42 40 40 42 45 47 46 45 42 38 35 32 29 27 V (KT) LAND 45 43 43 42 40 40 42 45 47 46 45 42 38 35 32 29 27 V (KT) LGEM 45 42 40 39 37 36 35 34 33 31 29 26 23 21 19 17 N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 7 8 11 17 21 26 6 11 10 17 14 19 12 17 15 14 7 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 0 0 -4 -2 4 5 4 5 10 6 2 1 0 1 1 SHEAR DIR 111 96 78 71 70 85 70 78 90 64 72 55 69 81 65 58 6 SST (C) 26.1 26.1 26.1 26.3 26.4 26.5 26.4 26.1 25.9 25.9 25.7 24.9 24.9 24.0 23.2 21.7 20.8 POT. INT. (KT) 122 122 122 124 124 122 124 121 120 120 119 111 110 101 92 77 68 200 MB T (C) -52.4 -52.5 -51.8 -51.7 -51.9 -51.5 -51.5 -50.6 -51.1 -50.4 -51.1 -51.0 -51.9 -51.5 -51.7 -51.5 -51.5 200 MB VXT (C) 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.6 0.8 0.6 0.5 0.7 0.4 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 7 6 6 5 5 5 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 5 5 5 5 700-500 MB RH 63 65 67 67 65 63 59 54 49 54 57 61 61 51 45 39 39 MODEL VTX (KT) 19 20 21 21 20 20 21 22 21 20 19 18 16 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 11 14 18 26 22 32 51 83 81 62 72 76 70 86 67 44 26 200 MB DIV -2 13 28 34 -2 17 29 36 58 51 62 35 36 30 2 -4 -2 700-850 TADV 0 0 0 0 0 4 3 0 2 1 2 0 2 0 -6 -1 7 LAND (KM) 2221 2175 2128 2087 2045 2014 2045 2102 2175 2261 2120 1951 1810 1706 1636 1592 1504 LAT (DEG N) 15.7 15.7 15.7 15.7 15.7 15.7 15.7 15.9 16.3 16.8 17.5 18.5 19.5 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 134.2 134.7 135.1 135.5 135.9 136.2 135.9 135.3 134.5 133.5 132.4 131.2 130.3 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 5 4 4 4 2 0 2 4 5 6 7 7 6 6 6 6 6 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 1 1 2 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):250/ 6 CX,CY: -5/ -1 T-12 MAX WIND: 55 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 507 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 47.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.7 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 7. 7. 7. 5. 2. -1. -4. -8. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 6. 7. 7. 7. 6. 6. 4. 3. 2. 1. PERSISTENCE -2. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -2. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -6. -7. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 1. 3. 3. 1. -1. -2. -4. -4. -3. -3. -3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -5. -4. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -2. -2. -3. -5. -5. -3. -0. 2. 1. 0. -3. -7. -10. -13. -16. -18. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 45. LAT, LON: 15.7 134.2 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP112014 KARINA 08/19/14 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 77.7 30.0 to 135.0 0.45 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -10.0 -20.0 to 40.0 0.17 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 12.9 17.2 to 1.6 0.28 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 14.2 -30.0 to 145.0 0.25 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 185.8 742.0 to -74.0 0.68 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 45.0 25.0 to 120.0 0.61 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 18.2 34.4 to 2.3 0.50 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.4 3.0 to 94.0 0.00 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 1.1 56.6 to 0.0 0.98 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.3 2.0 to -2.0 0.58 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 12.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.7% 2.0% 0.4% 0.3% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.2% 4.8% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP112014 KARINA 08/19/14 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##