* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * KARINA EP112014 08/19/14 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 55 59 61 62 62 61 59 58 57 59 58 53 48 44 42 38 36 V (KT) LAND 55 59 61 62 62 61 59 58 57 59 58 53 48 44 42 38 36 V (KT) LGEM 55 60 63 65 65 63 61 57 54 51 48 43 38 33 29 26 24 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 9 9 7 6 9 15 24 13 19 11 19 21 17 16 17 15 15 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -2 -1 0 0 -1 -1 3 -1 3 4 1 8 7 5 -2 -1 SHEAR DIR 114 108 119 113 115 62 75 62 80 77 66 65 79 82 89 110 104 SST (C) 26.2 26.0 25.9 25.9 26.0 26.2 26.3 26.3 26.3 26.3 26.2 26.2 26.1 26.0 26.0 25.1 25.4 POT. INT. (KT) 124 121 120 120 121 122 121 121 121 121 121 122 121 121 122 113 116 200 MB T (C) -52.2 -52.1 -52.4 -52.5 -52.3 -52.4 -51.8 -51.7 -51.3 -51.8 -51.2 -51.0 -51.4 -52.3 -51.8 -52.2 -51.5 200 MB VXT (C) 0.4 0.4 0.6 0.7 0.6 0.6 0.7 0.4 0.7 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 TH_E DEV (C) 7 6 6 6 5 4 4 4 4 3 3 3 3 3 4 4 5 700-500 MB RH 62 64 65 65 66 64 60 55 50 48 48 49 51 48 44 40 37 MODEL VTX (KT) 16 16 16 17 17 17 18 18 19 20 20 17 15 13 12 9 7 850 MB ENV VOR 24 20 16 18 28 44 52 69 96 111 108 91 78 56 88 93 61 200 MB DIV 1 -13 6 7 12 29 29 47 53 62 46 44 30 59 59 25 4 700-850 TADV 0 0 0 0 0 0 4 4 1 0 2 5 0 -2 0 -1 0 LAND (KM) 2289 2261 2203 2151 2099 2026 1993 1993 1982 1980 1998 2014 2048 2092 2185 2056 1872 LAT (DEG N) 16.0 16.0 16.0 16.0 16.0 16.0 16.1 16.1 16.1 16.2 16.3 16.5 16.8 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 133.2 133.8 134.3 134.8 135.3 136.0 136.3 136.3 136.4 136.4 136.2 136.0 135.6 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 6 5 5 5 4 2 0 0 0 1 1 2 3 4 7 8 8 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 1 1 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):250/ 7 CX,CY: -6/ -1 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 542 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 78.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 9.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -7. -8. -10. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. 6. 5. 4. 3. 3. PERSISTENCE 3. 5. 5. 5. 4. 3. 2. 2. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -6. -7. -8. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 0. 1. 1. 3. 3. 5. 4. 1. -2. -4. -5. -7. -8. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 4. 6. 7. 7. 6. 4. 3. 2. 4. 3. -2. -7. -11. -13. -17. -19. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 55. LAT, LON: 16.0 133.2 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP112014 KARINA 08/19/14 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 66.2 30.0 to 135.0 0.35 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 15.0 -20.0 to 40.0 0.58 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 8.2 17.2 to 1.6 0.57 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 2.6 -30.0 to 145.0 0.19 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 255.4 742.0 to -74.0 0.60 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 55.0 25.0 to 120.0 0.92 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 17.5 34.4 to 2.3 0.53 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.0 3.0 to 94.0 0.00 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 25.2 56.6 to 0.0 0.55 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.1 2.0 to -2.0 0.51 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 22% is 1.7 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 21.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 5.4% 10.9% 3.8% 3.5% 1.2% 1.4% 0.5% 0.2% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.8% 11.0% 1.3% 1.2% 0.4% 0.5% 0.2% 0.1% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP112014 KARINA 08/19/14 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##