* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * KARINA EP112014 08/18/14 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 45 46 47 47 48 48 47 46 49 50 51 49 45 43 42 38 37 V (KT) LAND 45 46 47 47 48 48 47 46 49 50 51 49 45 43 42 38 37 V (KT) LGEM 45 47 48 48 48 48 47 46 45 44 42 40 37 34 30 27 24 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 11 8 9 8 8 9 21 18 20 15 15 15 16 11 15 16 10 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -3 -2 -1 0 0 -1 2 -2 0 3 2 3 7 3 1 0 SHEAR DIR 114 128 107 119 115 92 67 84 74 94 72 69 71 98 72 108 121 SST (C) 26.3 26.1 25.9 25.9 25.9 26.1 26.3 26.3 26.3 26.3 26.2 26.1 26.0 25.9 25.6 24.9 25.6 POT. INT. (KT) 126 123 121 120 120 121 122 121 120 122 122 121 121 120 118 111 118 200 MB T (C) -52.4 -52.2 -52.1 -52.2 -52.4 -52.3 -52.3 -51.8 -51.9 -51.5 -51.7 -51.3 -51.5 -51.7 -51.9 -51.6 -51.6 200 MB VXT (C) 0.5 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.7 0.6 0.8 0.6 0.4 0.6 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.2 0.3 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 6 6 6 4 4 4 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 4 700-500 MB RH 58 60 64 65 65 66 63 58 52 49 46 47 49 52 55 52 48 MODEL VTX (KT) 16 16 16 16 16 16 15 16 18 18 18 17 15 14 13 10 7 850 MB ENV VOR 32 28 27 22 21 37 42 61 80 106 100 102 68 80 100 120 95 200 MB DIV 0 11 -10 0 -2 10 14 31 30 49 32 47 37 52 37 48 -3 700-850 TADV 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 3 2 2 -1 0 -2 2 1 2 -4 LAND (KM) 2213 2274 2240 2184 2128 2045 1993 1980 1967 1967 1990 2023 2087 2153 2136 1976 1818 LAT (DEG N) 16.5 16.4 16.2 16.2 16.1 16.1 16.1 16.2 16.3 16.3 16.6 17.0 17.5 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 132.7 133.3 133.9 134.5 135.0 135.8 136.3 136.4 136.5 136.5 136.2 135.8 135.1 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 8 6 6 5 4 3 2 1 0 1 2 3 4 5 7 7 7 HEAT CONTENT 2 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 1 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):245/ 9 CX,CY: -7/ -3 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 554 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 19.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 59.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 1.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 7. 7. 5. 4. 3. 1. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 2. 0. -1. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 4. 3. 3. 2. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -7. -9. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 2. 2. 2. 1. -1. -3. -4. -6. -7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. -3. -1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 1. 4. 5. 6. 4. 0. -2. -3. -7. -8. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 45. LAT, LON: 16.5 132.7 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP112014 KARINA 08/18/14 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 76.8 30.0 to 135.0 0.45 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -20.0 to 40.0 0.42 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 8.7 17.2 to 1.6 0.55 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -0.2 -30.0 to 145.0 0.17 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 235.0 742.0 to -74.0 0.62 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 45.0 25.0 to 120.0 0.61 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 19.6 34.4 to 2.3 0.46 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.4 3.0 to 94.0 0.00 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 25.2 56.6 to 0.0 0.55 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.5 2.0 to -2.0 0.87 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 1.4 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 17.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 2.0% 5.7% 1.8% 1.3% 0.6% 0.7% 0.2% 0.1% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.7% 7.7% 0.6% 0.4% 0.2% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP112014 KARINA 08/18/14 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##