* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * TWELVE EP122014 08/18/14 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 31 34 38 42 47 52 58 61 63 62 61 53 47 41 36 30 V (KT) LAND 30 31 34 38 42 47 52 58 61 63 62 61 53 47 41 36 30 V (KT) LGEM 30 31 31 33 34 37 39 40 42 43 43 41 36 31 27 25 23 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 16 15 14 14 18 17 9 10 9 8 6 7 15 11 12 16 22 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 0 0 -2 -3 1 -3 0 -3 -3 -5 -1 -4 -7 -4 -5 -5 SHEAR DIR 53 72 78 76 76 95 69 79 101 126 190 223 226 269 243 238 233 SST (C) 28.4 28.4 28.4 28.2 27.8 27.2 26.9 26.7 26.3 25.7 24.7 21.2 21.5 21.4 21.8 22.0 22.5 POT. INT. (KT) 147 147 147 144 140 133 130 128 125 120 110 74 77 76 79 81 86 200 MB T (C) -52.0 -52.3 -52.1 -51.3 -51.7 -51.8 -51.4 -51.5 -51.0 -50.9 -50.5 -50.8 -50.3 -50.6 -50.7 -50.9 -50.8 200 MB VXT (C) 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.4 0.7 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.8 1.1 0.9 0.8 0.6 0.7 0.7 0.5 0.5 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 7 6 6 6 5 5 4 3 1 0 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 78 78 78 78 78 79 77 76 67 62 55 52 46 42 36 34 30 MODEL VTX (KT) 16 16 19 21 21 23 23 25 26 26 26 27 26 24 21 19 16 850 MB ENV VOR 44 46 64 76 82 84 81 89 124 135 132 128 105 107 94 93 73 200 MB DIV 60 37 47 83 104 79 51 58 45 16 37 -6 -17 1 -3 -7 -14 700-850 TADV -6 0 -1 -2 -2 -3 -2 -4 -3 -3 0 0 2 0 0 3 0 LAND (KM) 1068 1101 1129 1128 1131 1092 1044 1009 970 917 870 918 980 967 1023 1084 1180 LAT (DEG N) 16.0 16.2 16.4 16.7 17.0 17.8 18.6 19.3 20.3 21.6 23.3 25.3 27.1 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 117.1 117.8 118.4 118.9 119.3 119.7 119.9 120.1 120.4 121.0 122.1 123.8 125.7 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 7 7 6 5 5 4 4 4 6 9 11 13 12 11 9 9 9 HEAT CONTENT 16 14 14 13 13 9 4 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 8 CX,CY: -7/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 506 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 20.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 50.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 11.4 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 6. 11. 15. 19. 21. 23. 21. 18. 15. 11. 9. 7. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -8. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. 4. 5. 5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -9. -11. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 2. 3. 4. 5. 7. 11. 13. 14. 14. 14. 11. 8. 5. 2. -0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -6. -5. -4. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 1. 5. 8. 12. 17. 22. 28. 31. 33. 32. 31. 23. 17. 11. 6. -0. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 16.0 117.1 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP122014 TWELVE 08/18/14 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 115.0 30.0 to 135.0 0.81 6.7 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -20.0 to 40.0 0.33 2.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 15.2 17.2 to 1.6 0.13 0.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 66.2 -30.0 to 145.0 0.55 3.5 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 46.2 742.0 to -74.0 0.85 -5.1 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 25.0 to 120.0 0.15 0.9 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 20.7 34.4 to 2.3 0.43 2.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 14.0 3.0 to 94.0 0.12 0.3 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 1.8 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.2 2.0 to -2.0 0.79 0.6 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.2 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 1.3 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 7.3% 16.1% 14.4% 11.0% 0.0% 11.9% 12.1% 11.9% Logistic: 0.2% 1.3% 0.3% 0.1% 0.1% 0.5% 2.9% 1.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.5% 5.9% 4.9% 3.7% 0.0% 4.1% 5.0% 4.3% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP122014 TWELVE 08/18/14 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##