* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * KARINA EP112014 08/17/14 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 35 34 34 35 36 41 43 48 49 52 51 54 51 48 46 44 44 V (KT) LAND 35 34 34 35 36 41 43 48 49 52 51 54 51 48 46 44 44 V (KT) LGEM 35 33 33 32 33 34 36 38 38 37 37 37 36 34 32 29 26 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 7 7 9 9 10 12 16 13 13 16 12 11 17 16 23 21 17 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -1 -2 -1 -2 -4 -2 -1 0 -2 3 2 5 3 5 1 1 SHEAR DIR 123 109 101 99 89 91 102 111 102 79 93 95 98 95 95 116 135 SST (C) 26.8 26.7 26.5 26.1 25.9 25.6 25.7 25.8 25.9 26.0 26.0 26.1 26.1 26.0 26.0 25.8 25.7 POT. INT. (KT) 132 130 128 124 121 117 117 117 118 118 118 119 119 118 118 117 116 200 MB T (C) -52.0 -52.1 -52.4 -52.4 -52.0 -52.1 -51.7 -52.4 -51.7 -52.4 -51.8 -52.5 -51.7 -52.4 -52.1 -52.8 -52.5 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.7 0.5 0.4 0.5 0.7 0.4 0.5 0.2 0.5 0.1 0.2 0.4 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 7 6 7 6 6 5 4 4 4 3 3 3 3 4 4 700-500 MB RH 64 61 60 58 58 60 65 69 76 77 73 70 64 61 59 58 56 MODEL VTX (KT) 16 16 16 16 17 20 19 22 21 22 21 23 21 20 18 17 15 850 MB ENV VOR 59 64 58 55 69 75 69 53 31 25 24 46 72 81 82 78 72 200 MB DIV 33 28 25 28 38 39 13 12 15 38 48 45 53 12 54 38 60 700-850 TADV 1 0 0 2 2 2 1 0 0 1 5 0 0 1 1 2 -1 LAND (KM) 1554 1635 1719 1796 1874 2016 2118 2174 2211 2226 2233 2240 2240 2233 2218 2187 2141 LAT (DEG N) 17.8 17.7 17.5 17.4 17.2 16.7 16.3 16.1 15.8 15.6 15.5 15.4 15.4 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 125.6 126.6 127.5 128.4 129.2 130.5 131.4 131.9 132.1 132.1 132.1 132.1 132.1 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 10 9 9 8 7 6 4 2 2 0 0 0 0 1 1 2 2 HEAT CONTENT 4 5 5 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):260/ 11 CX,CY: -10/ -1 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 533 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 22.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 38.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 1.7 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 10. 12. 14. 15. 15. 13. 12. 11. 10. 10. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 3. 2. 1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. -7. 700-500 MB RH 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. 0. 0. 3. 3. 7. 6. 7. 6. 8. 5. 3. 2. -0. -1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. -6. -5. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -4. -2. -1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -1. -1. -0. 1. 6. 8. 13. 14. 17. 16. 19. 16. 13. 11. 9. 9. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 17.8 125.6 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP112014 KARINA 08/17/14 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 92.1 30.0 to 135.0 0.59 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -20.0 to 40.0 0.25 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 8.5 17.2 to 1.6 0.56 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 30.4 -30.0 to 145.0 0.35 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 224.0 742.0 to -74.0 0.63 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 35.0 25.0 to 120.0 0.31 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 22.9 34.4 to 2.3 0.36 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 2.8 3.0 to 94.0 0.00 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.3 2.0 to -2.0 0.82 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 1.2 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 8.0% 15.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.2% 0.9% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.2% 0.2% 0.1% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.8% 5.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP112014 KARINA 08/17/14 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##