* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * KARINA EP112014 08/16/14 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 40 39 39 39 39 41 44 48 52 54 57 55 54 54 52 54 54 V (KT) LAND 40 39 39 39 39 41 44 48 52 54 57 55 54 54 52 54 54 V (KT) LGEM 40 40 39 39 39 39 40 43 45 46 46 46 46 47 47 45 41 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 11 12 11 10 8 10 8 13 7 5 13 6 3 7 4 4 6 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 1 0 -4 -2 -4 -3 -5 0 -1 -2 -2 -1 -1 2 6 2 SHEAR DIR 111 120 121 119 122 108 102 86 69 35 52 120 9 101 176 136 188 SST (C) 26.9 26.7 26.5 26.3 26.1 25.7 25.6 25.8 25.8 25.7 25.7 25.7 25.7 25.8 25.8 25.8 25.8 POT. INT. (KT) 133 131 128 126 124 119 117 119 118 117 115 116 116 117 116 115 115 200 MB T (C) -52.4 -52.1 -52.2 -52.4 -52.4 -52.0 -52.4 -52.1 -52.4 -52.5 -52.9 -52.4 -52.7 -52.3 -52.4 -52.4 -52.8 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.5 0.6 0.5 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.3 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 5 4 4 4 4 3 3 3 3 3 700-500 MB RH 65 63 60 59 56 58 57 63 68 72 70 67 59 54 51 50 48 MODEL VTX (KT) 14 14 14 14 14 15 15 17 18 19 20 19 18 18 16 16 13 850 MB ENV VOR 69 64 67 56 57 82 83 95 67 70 61 87 116 145 130 124 101 200 MB DIV 31 26 26 24 13 28 12 3 -8 37 30 28 19 24 1 9 47 700-850 TADV 1 1 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 -4 0 0 2 5 6 4 LAND (KM) 1460 1530 1604 1688 1774 1940 2067 2186 2267 2271 2240 2214 2199 2180 2167 2166 2166 LAT (DEG N) 18.0 18.0 18.0 17.9 17.7 17.3 16.9 16.4 16.2 16.2 16.2 16.4 16.6 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 124.5 125.5 126.5 127.5 128.4 130.1 131.3 132.3 133.1 133.6 133.9 134.1 134.2 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 10 10 10 9 9 7 6 5 3 2 1 1 2 2 0 0 0 HEAT CONTENT 5 3 3 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 10 CX,CY: -9/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 522 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 26.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 46.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.6 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 10. 11. 11. 11. 9. 7. 6. 5. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 5. 5. 6. 6. 6. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 3. 5. 6. 8. 5. 4. 4. 1. 1. -1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -5. -6. -5. -4. -3. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -1. -1. -1. -1. 1. 4. 8. 12. 14. 17. 15. 14. 14. 12. 14. 14. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 40. LAT, LON: 18.0 124.5 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP112014 KARINA 08/16/14 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 88.4 30.0 to 135.0 0.56 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -20.0 to 40.0 0.33 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 10.6 17.2 to 1.6 0.43 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 24.0 -30.0 to 145.0 0.31 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 255.0 742.0 to -74.0 0.60 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 40.0 25.0 to 120.0 0.46 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 26.9 34.4 to 2.3 0.23 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 2.6 3.0 to 94.0 0.00 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.7 2.0 to -2.0 0.91 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 1.1 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 8.1% 14.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.4% 1.4% 0.5% 0.3% 0.1% 0.7% 1.0% 0.2% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.8% 5.2% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.2% 0.3% 0.1% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP112014 KARINA 08/16/14 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##