* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * KARINA EP112014 08/16/14 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 40 38 37 36 35 36 39 42 48 48 52 55 56 57 57 58 61 V (KT) LAND 40 38 37 36 35 36 39 42 48 48 52 55 56 57 57 58 61 V (KT) LGEM 40 38 36 35 34 33 33 35 37 39 41 44 46 48 48 48 47 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 13 14 14 10 8 6 5 4 4 1 2 7 2 7 5 7 8 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 1 1 -1 -3 -3 -6 -5 -5 0 0 -2 -2 -2 -2 4 1 SHEAR DIR 100 110 128 133 136 118 105 79 33 329 56 87 141 158 169 170 183 SST (C) 27.0 26.7 26.4 26.2 26.1 25.7 25.4 25.7 25.8 25.7 25.7 25.7 25.8 25.8 25.8 25.7 25.7 POT. INT. (KT) 134 131 127 125 124 120 116 118 118 116 116 115 117 117 117 115 115 200 MB T (C) -52.4 -52.4 -52.1 -52.2 -52.4 -52.2 -52.3 -52.1 -52.4 -52.2 -52.8 -52.5 -52.8 -52.1 -52.3 -51.8 -52.4 200 MB VXT (C) 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.3 0.5 0.4 0.7 0.6 0.6 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 6 6 6 6 6 5 4 4 4 3 3 4 4 4 4 700-500 MB RH 69 65 62 58 58 55 58 60 67 69 71 71 67 60 56 55 55 MODEL VTX (KT) 17 15 15 15 15 14 15 16 18 17 18 19 20 20 20 19 19 850 MB ENV VOR 75 65 62 65 55 61 62 82 84 69 69 80 107 131 130 117 109 200 MB DIV 30 20 16 10 3 15 6 4 8 46 26 40 23 11 5 13 5 700-850 TADV 0 3 2 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 -1 0 0 0 0 1 1 LAND (KM) 1373 1437 1505 1584 1666 1833 1992 2128 2216 2259 2239 2207 2184 2147 2132 2127 2123 LAT (DEG N) 18.3 18.3 18.4 18.4 18.3 18.0 17.5 17.0 16.7 16.7 16.7 16.7 16.8 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 123.6 124.6 125.6 126.6 127.6 129.4 130.9 132.1 132.9 133.4 133.8 134.1 134.3 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 10 9 9 9 9 8 7 5 3 2 2 1 2 1 1 1 1 HEAT CONTENT 6 3 1 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):287/ 10 CX,CY: -9/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 478 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 24.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 61.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 11. 9. 7. 6. 5. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9. 9. 9. 9. 9. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -6. -7. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. 1. -1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 1. 1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 5. 5. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -2. -3. -4. -5. -4. -1. 2. 8. 8. 12. 15. 16. 17. 17. 18. 21. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 40. LAT, LON: 18.3 123.6 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP112014 KARINA 08/16/14 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 88.2 30.0 to 135.0 0.55 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -20.0 to 40.0 0.25 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 11.8 17.2 to 1.6 0.34 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 15.8 -30.0 to 145.0 0.26 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 241.2 742.0 to -74.0 0.61 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 40.0 25.0 to 120.0 0.46 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 24.3 34.4 to 2.3 0.31 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 2.0 3.0 to 94.0 0.00 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -2.1 2.0 to -2.0 1.00 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 1.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 6.1% 12.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.4% 2.0% 0.6% 0.3% 0.1% 0.8% 1.2% 0.4% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.1% 5.0% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.3% 0.4% 0.1% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP112014 KARINA 08/16/14 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##