* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * JULIO EP102014 08/14/14 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 60 53 47 43 39 31 23 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 60 53 47 43 39 31 23 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 60 55 49 43 38 29 23 19 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 33 29 20 22 19 16 20 20 16 11 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 2 6 -1 0 3 0 1 -2 0 -2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 11 27 21 5 5 351 326 338 332 303 303 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 26.5 26.5 26.4 26.3 26.2 25.8 25.6 25.2 24.0 22.2 20.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 125 125 125 124 123 119 117 113 102 83 62 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.8 -52.9 -52.9 -52.6 -52.5 -52.6 -52.1 -52.4 -52.2 -53.0 -53.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.3 0.2 -0.2 0.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 4 3 3 2 2 2 3 3 4 3 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 39 40 41 41 40 41 39 37 37 44 47 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 17 16 15 14 13 11 9 8 6 3 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -11 -14 -23 -42 -60 -88 -105 -128 -116 -94 -50 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV -12 -8 -17 -22 -21 -24 -31 14 10 27 32 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 5 3 5 3 0 2 0 -1 0 17 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 964 993 1022 1063 1103 1195 1294 1392 1536 1726 1821 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 30.9 31.2 31.4 31.8 32.1 32.9 33.8 34.7 36.0 37.7 39.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 159.1 158.9 158.6 158.4 158.2 157.9 157.9 158.1 158.0 157.8 157.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 3 3 4 4 4 5 5 5 8 9 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 1 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 45/ 3 CX,CY: 2/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 70 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 737 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 19.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 32.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -3. -5. -8. -12. -14. -17. -19. -22. -24. -26. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -5. -9. -14. -17. -18. -20. -22. -25. -29. -32. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -4. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. PERSISTENCE -2. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 0. -2. -3. -5. -4. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -8. -9. -9. -9. -9. -11. -12. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -5. -7. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -2. -4. -5. -8. -12. -16. -20. -21. -20. -18. -17. -15. -14. -12. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 3. 3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -5. -5. -4. -4. -2. -1. 0. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -4. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 3. 2. 2. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. GOES PREDICTORS -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -7. -8. -8. -6. -5. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -7. -13. -17. -21. -29. -37. -45. -52. -60. -66. -69. -71. -74. -77. -80. -82. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 60. LAT, LON: 30.9 159.1 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP102014 JULIO 08/14/14 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 64.3 30.0 to 135.0 0.33 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -10.0 -20.0 to 40.0 0.17 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 24.6 17.2 to 1.6 0.00 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -16.0 -30.0 to 145.0 0.08 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 491.4 742.0 to -74.0 0.31 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 60.0 25.0 to 120.0 0.96 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 19.9 34.4 to 2.3 0.45 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.6 3.0 to 94.0 0.00 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 1.2 56.6 to 0.0 0.98 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.9 2.0 to -2.0 0.26 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP102014 JULIO 08/14/14 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##