* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * JULIO EP102014 08/12/14 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 60 58 57 56 58 58 56 49 43 38 32 27 23 22 21 19 19 V (KT) LAND 60 58 57 56 58 58 56 49 43 38 32 27 23 22 21 19 19 V (KT) LGEM 60 59 58 58 58 59 57 50 41 34 28 23 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 16 16 12 13 4 10 19 20 12 21 17 14 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 0 1 -4 -6 -5 -1 8 3 3 1 -3 -1 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 233 229 218 237 231 17 3 4 320 312 335 334 324 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 26.1 26.2 26.5 26.7 27.1 27.2 26.9 26.4 25.7 25.1 24.4 23.8 23.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 123 124 127 129 133 134 131 126 119 113 106 100 94 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.2 -53.0 -52.8 -52.6 -52.6 -52.6 -52.7 -52.4 -51.8 -51.9 -52.4 -52.3 -52.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.8 0.6 0.2 0.2 0.4 0.5 0.2 0.3 0.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 7 7 6 4 3 1 1 1 1 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 39 35 35 33 33 33 41 44 47 48 47 47 49 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 20 21 22 21 22 20 20 18 16 16 15 14 12 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -41 -31 -19 -23 -18 -32 -4 -19 -34 -59 -82 -105 -122 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 5 -1 -25 -24 3 -9 16 -30 -5 -21 -14 -24 -17 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 2 0 3 1 2 3 5 10 4 2 5 8 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 664 692 723 764 809 924 1035 1162 1285 1406 1563 1733 1900 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 27.4 27.9 28.4 28.9 29.4 30.5 31.5 32.6 33.6 34.5 35.6 36.7 37.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 156.0 156.5 157.1 157.5 158.0 158.5 158.4 157.9 157.0 155.9 154.4 152.7 151.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 7 7 7 6 7 5 6 6 6 7 9 8 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 1 3 5 4 2 1 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):315/ 8 CX,CY: -5/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 65 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 649 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 23.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 57.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 1.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -2. -4. -6. -10. -11. -13. -15. -16. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. -0. 0. 1. 3. 2. 1. -2. -6. -9. -10. -11. -12. -15. -17. -19. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -8. -9. -10. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -5. -7. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -3. -6. -7. -7. -9. -10. -9. -8. -7. -7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -4. -3. -1. 0. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -3. -4. -4. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. -3. -1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -2. -3. -4. -2. -2. -4. -11. -17. -22. -28. -33. -37. -38. -39. -41. -41. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 60. LAT, LON: 27.4 156.0 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP102014 JULIO 08/12/14 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 67.5 30.0 to 135.0 0.36 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -20.0 to 40.0 0.25 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 12.1 17.2 to 1.6 0.33 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -8.4 -30.0 to 145.0 0.12 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 595.4 742.0 to -74.0 0.18 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 60.0 25.0 to 120.0 0.96 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 23.3 34.4 to 2.3 0.35 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 1.8 3.0 to 94.0 0.00 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 81.7 56.6 to 0.0 0.00 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.3 2.0 to -2.0 0.43 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP102014 JULIO 08/12/14 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##