* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * JULIO EP102014 08/09/14 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 85 82 79 74 71 67 66 63 66 62 58 51 46 45 44 43 42 V (KT) LAND 85 82 79 74 71 67 66 63 66 62 58 51 46 45 44 43 42 V (KT) LGEM 85 83 79 76 72 66 64 62 62 62 61 58 54 N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 16 12 11 17 17 19 18 19 12 8 12 21 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -1 3 0 0 2 0 0 -4 -1 -5 -2 -1 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 223 220 210 222 212 229 225 228 204 169 92 98 116 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 25.7 25.5 25.4 25.8 25.9 26.2 26.4 26.4 26.6 26.9 27.0 26.9 26.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 122 119 118 122 123 125 127 127 129 132 133 132 131 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.4 -53.1 -53.1 -53.0 -53.0 -52.9 -53.3 -53.0 -53.0 -52.5 -52.6 -52.4 -52.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.6 0.4 0.7 0.9 0.7 0.7 0.3 0.5 0.0 0.7 0.3 0.1 0.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 6 6 7 7 8 7 7 7 7 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 56 56 59 59 54 47 44 38 37 33 37 36 35 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 22 22 23 21 21 20 21 19 21 18 17 16 14 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -21 -23 -15 -23 -31 -43 -33 -26 0 -2 -11 -37 -62 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 29 26 23 15 31 6 -4 4 0 -15 -13 -9 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 13 10 11 9 5 0 0 2 1 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 708 594 498 443 406 406 435 460 519 632 777 942 1126 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 20.6 21.2 21.7 22.3 22.9 24.3 25.3 26.1 26.9 27.8 28.7 29.6 30.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 148.1 149.4 150.6 151.7 152.8 154.7 156.3 157.8 159.3 160.8 162.5 164.3 166.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 14 13 12 12 12 10 9 8 8 8 9 9 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 4 7 4 3 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 14 CX,CY: -12/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 85 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 663 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 74.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -4. -5. -8. -13. -17. -21. -23. -25. -27. -28. -29. -31. -33. -35. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -7. -9. -11. -12. -13. -13. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 2. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -6. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -3. -1. -5. -7. -8. -9. -8. -8. -7. -6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 6. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 5. 5. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -3. -6. -11. -14. -18. -19. -22. -19. -23. -27. -34. -39. -40. -41. -42. -43. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 85. LAT, LON: 20.6 148.1 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP102014 JULIO 08/09/14 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 35.9 30.0 to 135.0 0.06 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -20.0 to 40.0 0.33 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 14.8 17.2 to 1.6 0.16 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 24.8 -30.0 to 145.0 0.31 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 590.6 742.0 to -74.0 0.19 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 85.0 25.0 to 120.0 0.56 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.2 34.4 to 2.3 0.63 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.0 3.0 to 94.0 0.00 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.9 2.0 to -2.0 0.28 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 0.9 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 11.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.1% 3.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP102014 JULIO 08/09/14 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##