* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ISELLE EP092014 08/09/14 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 35 32 32 32 33 36 36 36 34 33 33 34 34 34 35 35 35 V (KT) LAND 35 32 32 32 33 36 36 36 34 33 33 34 34 34 35 35 35 V (KT) LGEM 35 31 29 27 26 25 26 28 31 34 38 41 43 N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 33 26 23 24 23 10 13 3 8 8 12 12 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -4 3 3 1 -1 -4 -1 0 -2 3 1 0 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 318 299 284 256 245 216 187 168 165 165 108 103 95 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 27.4 27.6 27.7 27.7 27.8 27.4 27.5 27.9 28.1 28.6 28.5 28.1 27.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 139 141 142 141 143 139 140 144 147 152 151 148 139 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.7 -53.7 -54.0 -54.4 -54.0 -54.0 -54.0 -53.6 -53.6 -53.6 -53.4 -53.0 -52.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 -0.5 -0.9 -1.2 -0.9 -0.8 -0.4 -0.4 -0.5 -0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 9 9 10 10 10 10 10 11 11 11 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 40 42 47 50 49 51 52 54 54 56 52 46 43 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 10 9 9 9 8 7 6 5 3 2 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -13 -17 -15 -9 -9 -7 -12 -14 -31 -39 -54 -79 -91 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV -4 -29 -1 0 -6 2 1 -13 12 5 -6 -11 -8 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 1 0 0 -2 -3 -6 1 -2 1 0 2 2 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 185 199 210 273 363 582 844 1130 1408 1706 2009 2329 2653 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 19.8 20.0 20.2 20.4 20.6 21.0 21.4 21.8 22.4 23.1 24.3 26.1 27.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 158.9 160.1 161.3 162.4 163.5 165.8 168.4 171.2 173.9 176.8 179.7 182.7 185.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 13 11 11 10 11 11 13 13 14 14 15 16 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 32 31 22 20 24 12 12 27 24 20 19 13 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 14 CX,CY: -13/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 800 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 6.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 1.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 6. 10. 14. 18. 21. 23. 25. 26. 27. 28. 29. 30. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -2. -4. -5. -6. -6. -7. -7. -8. -9. -11. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -0. -0. -0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -4. -4. -3. PERSISTENCE -2. -4. -4. -5. -4. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -9. -11. -12. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9. 9. 10. 10. 11. 12. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -4. -6. -11. -12. -12. -12. -11. -10. -9. -8. -7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -4. -3. -1. 0. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. 4. 3. 3. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -3. -6. -8. -9. -11. -12. -14. -14. -15. -14. -12. -11. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -3. -3. -3. -2. 1. 1. 1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. -0. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 19.8 158.9 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP092014 ISELLE 08/09/14 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 106.1 30.0 to 135.0 0.72 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -10.0 -20.0 to 40.0 0.17 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 26.0 17.2 to 1.6 0.00 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -8.0 -30.0 to 145.0 0.13 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 288.2 742.0 to -74.0 0.56 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 35.0 25.0 to 120.0 0.31 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 6.3 34.4 to 2.3 0.88 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 25.8 3.0 to 94.0 0.25 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 39.9 56.6 to 0.0 0.30 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.0 2.0 to -2.0 0.25 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP092014 ISELLE 08/09/14 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##