* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ISELLE EP092014 08/07/14 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 70 66 62 57 53 49 46 44 42 39 36 36 33 32 32 32 31 V (KT) LAND 70 66 62 52 53 49 46 44 42 39 37 36 33 33 32 32 31 V (KT) LGEM 70 66 63 53 56 52 49 47 47 48 50 50 50 N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 18 18 27 35 39 30 29 20 12 8 7 8 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -2 -1 -3 -8 2 1 -6 -6 -2 -1 -1 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 340 319 308 312 317 292 260 232 206 170 113 139 67 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 26.1 26.3 26.6 27.0 27.1 27.5 27.4 27.6 27.5 27.7 28.1 27.8 27.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 126 128 131 135 136 140 139 141 140 143 147 144 137 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.6 -52.3 -52.3 -52.5 -52.6 -53.2 -53.8 -54.1 -54.2 -53.6 -53.6 -53.0 -52.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 1.0 0.8 0.5 0.3 0.1 -0.2 -0.6 -0.5 -0.6 -0.8 -0.5 -0.5 -0.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 8 9 9 9 9 9 9 10 9 10 10 10 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 35 35 35 35 37 41 49 48 47 45 45 43 41 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 18 17 16 14 12 10 10 9 9 7 6 4 2 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 19 13 15 1 -5 -3 -10 -15 -28 -31 -51 -63 -88 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV -28 -23 -37 -34 -7 0 -6 -34 -12 -30 -11 -13 -4 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 3 4 4 5 2 -2 -4 -1 2 2 8 5 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 357 195 33 -6 84 112 217 460 727 1015 1320 1647 1960 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 18.7 19.1 19.4 19.8 20.1 20.8 21.4 22.1 23.0 23.9 25.1 26.4 27.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 151.5 153.0 154.5 156.0 157.4 160.0 162.3 164.7 167.2 169.9 172.7 175.7 178.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 15 15 15 14 13 12 11 12 12 14 15 15 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 1 5 7 17 27 21 17 11 17 20 8 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 16 CX,CY: -14/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 80 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 699 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 11.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 76.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. -2. -3. -5. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -7. -8. -9. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -3. -6. -9. -12. -14. -15. -15. -15. -14. -14. -14. -15. -16. -17. -17. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. -3. -3. -3. PERSISTENCE -2. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 0. -0. -1. -3. -4. -6. -8. -9. -10. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 7. 7. 8. 8. 9. 10. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -6. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -3. -5. -6. -8. -11. -14. -16. -17. -19. -20. -18. -16. -15. -13. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -4. -3. -1. 0. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 5. 5. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -4. -8. -13. -17. -21. -24. -26. -28. -31. -34. -34. -37. -37. -38. -38. -39. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 70. LAT, LON: 18.7 151.5 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP092014 ISELLE 08/07/14 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 61.5 30.0 to 135.0 0.30 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -10.0 -20.0 to 40.0 0.17 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 27.4 17.2 to 1.6 0.00 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -25.8 -30.0 to 145.0 0.02 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 719.6 742.0 to -74.0 0.03 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 70.0 25.0 to 120.0 0.80 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 11.6 34.4 to 2.3 0.71 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 6.0 3.0 to 94.0 0.03 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 45.4 56.6 to 0.0 0.20 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.5 2.0 to -2.0 0.37 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP092014 ISELLE 08/07/14 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##