* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ISELLE EP092014 08/07/14 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 70 66 63 59 55 50 45 42 38 33 31 28 29 28 29 29 29 V (KT) LAND 70 66 63 59 55 50 45 42 38 33 31 28 29 29 29 29 30 V (KT) LGEM 70 66 63 60 51 52 49 46 44 43 43 43 43 N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 15 15 14 22 31 37 28 21 20 16 9 12 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -6 -4 -4 0 0 -8 0 0 -6 -3 -3 0 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 8 343 318 303 304 317 275 234 214 190 171 120 119 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 25.9 26.0 26.3 26.6 27.0 27.4 27.4 27.6 27.4 27.5 27.9 28.5 27.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 124 126 128 132 136 139 138 141 139 140 145 151 144 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.5 -52.5 -52.5 -52.5 -52.8 -52.9 -53.4 -53.8 -53.9 -53.9 -53.7 -53.6 -53.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.7 0.8 0.7 0.4 0.1 -0.1 -0.2 -0.8 -0.5 -0.6 -0.6 -0.8 0.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 9 9 9 9 9 9 10 10 10 11 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 38 36 36 36 36 42 48 50 50 48 49 47 47 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 19 18 17 16 13 11 10 9 8 6 5 2 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 30 18 16 14 -1 -6 -10 -14 -19 -40 -48 -71 -84 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV -44 -44 -24 -29 -53 5 2 1 -11 -19 -18 -8 -11 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 10 4 6 6 5 4 -3 0 -3 5 -3 5 -10 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 542 367 193 25 14 113 114 326 578 845 1146 1448 1756 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 18.3 18.7 19.1 19.5 19.9 20.6 21.3 21.9 22.6 23.4 24.4 25.5 26.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 149.8 151.4 153.0 154.5 156.1 158.9 161.2 163.4 165.8 168.3 171.1 173.9 176.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 15 16 15 15 15 12 11 11 12 13 14 14 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 1 5 7 29 23 22 10 12 16 18 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 15 CX,CY: -13/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 80 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 651 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 12.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 58.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -2. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -7. -7. -8. -9. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -2. -3. -5. -9. -11. -13. -14. -15. -15. -15. -15. -16. -17. -17. -18. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. PERSISTENCE -2. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. -4. -6. -8. -9. -10. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 7. 7. 8. 8. 9. 10. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -6. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -2. -4. -5. -8. -12. -14. -18. -19. -22. -20. -18. -17. -15. -14. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -5. -3. -1. 0. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 4. 5. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -4. -7. -11. -15. -20. -25. -28. -32. -37. -39. -42. -41. -42. -41. -41. -41. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 70. LAT, LON: 18.3 149.8 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP092014 ISELLE 08/07/14 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 59.1 30.0 to 135.0 0.28 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -10.0 -20.0 to 40.0 0.17 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 19.3 17.2 to 1.6 0.00 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -38.8 -30.0 to 145.0 0.00 0.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 707.6 742.0 to -74.0 0.04 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 70.0 25.0 to 120.0 0.80 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.4 34.4 to 2.3 0.69 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 2.6 3.0 to 94.0 0.00 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 38.9 56.6 to 0.0 0.31 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.1 2.0 to -2.0 0.47 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP092014 ISELLE 08/07/14 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##