* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ISELLE EP092014 08/07/14 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 80 78 76 72 70 62 55 48 43 43 44 44 44 44 44 44 45 V (KT) LAND 80 78 76 72 70 62 55 48 43 43 44 45 44 44 44 44 45 V (KT) LGEM 80 80 78 76 73 60 60 55 50 48 47 49 51 N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 18 13 11 11 13 26 33 30 17 12 5 4 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -4 -4 -3 -4 0 -6 1 1 -5 -4 -3 -2 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 19 22 355 330 302 304 327 297 293 303 259 313 111 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 26.0 26.1 26.1 26.2 26.5 27.0 27.5 27.7 27.8 27.8 27.8 28.2 28.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 125 126 126 127 131 136 141 142 143 143 142 147 147 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.5 -52.4 -52.4 -52.6 -52.6 -52.9 -53.2 -53.5 -53.6 -53.9 -54.0 -53.8 -54.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.6 0.7 0.6 0.6 0.4 -0.1 -0.2 -0.2 -0.9 -0.8 -0.6 -0.7 -0.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 9 9 9 9 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 41 42 39 38 39 38 43 51 50 50 51 52 51 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 20 19 19 17 16 13 12 11 10 11 11 10 8 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 34 34 27 17 14 2 -7 1 3 2 -3 -14 -32 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV -41 -32 -41 -7 -8 -45 15 0 -8 16 -19 -23 -8 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 14 12 8 7 8 4 0 -3 -2 -4 0 4 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 881 720 558 391 224 0 171 218 455 707 946 1176 1407 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 17.5 17.8 18.1 18.5 18.8 19.4 20.0 20.6 21.2 21.9 22.6 23.2 23.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 146.7 148.2 149.7 151.3 152.8 155.9 159.0 161.9 164.6 167.1 169.4 171.6 173.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 14 15 15 15 15 15 14 13 12 12 11 11 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 1 0 0 3 8 28 19 17 13 16 24 29 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 14 CX,CY: -13/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 75 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 547 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 85.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -7. -10. -12. -14. -15. -16. -16. -16. -17. -18. -20. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -2. -3. -3. -6. -9. -11. -11. -10. -9. -8. -7. -8. -8. -8. -8. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -4. -6. -7. -9. -10. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 6. 6. 6. 7. 7. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -8. -12. -14. -13. -13. -14. -14. -13. -12. -11. -10. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -5. -3. -1. 0. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -1. -2. -2. -1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 5. 5. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -2. -4. -8. -10. -18. -25. -32. -37. -37. -36. -36. -36. -36. -36. -36. -35. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 80. LAT, LON: 17.5 146.7 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP092014 ISELLE 08/07/14 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 47.1 30.0 to 135.0 0.16 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -20.0 to 40.0 0.42 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 13.2 17.2 to 1.6 0.26 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -25.8 -30.0 to 145.0 0.02 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 753.0 742.0 to -74.0 0.00 0.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 80.0 25.0 to 120.0 0.64 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.5 34.4 to 2.3 0.59 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.8 3.0 to 94.0 0.00 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 4.6 56.6 to 0.0 0.92 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.4 2.0 to -2.0 0.59 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.6% 0.4% 0.3% 0.3% 0.5% 0.1% 0.4% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.2% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP092014 ISELLE 08/07/14 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##