* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * GENEVIEVE EP072014 08/07/14 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 100 110 115 117 116 115 113 108 105 101 89 76 63 63 63 64 65 V (KT) LAND 100 110 115 117 116 115 113 108 105 101 89 76 63 63 63 64 65 V (KT) LGEM 100 111 115 116 116 115 114 111 107 97 83 66 52 N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 4 5 6 10 14 6 7 15 5 5 13 8 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -4 -2 -2 0 -2 0 2 0 8 0 -1 -6 -4 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 291 349 342 336 331 297 212 216 206 197 140 127 113 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 28.2 28.3 28.1 28.0 28.0 28.5 29.0 29.2 29.3 26.8 25.7 23.6 20.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 148 149 147 145 144 150 155 158 159 133 122 101 68 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.7 -51.6 -51.6 -51.5 -51.0 -51.0 -50.8 -51.0 -50.4 -50.1 -49.7 -49.2 -48.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.8 0.8 0.9 0.8 1.5 1.2 1.4 1.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 9 10 10 10 10 10 9 9 9 8 6 4 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 65 65 65 65 63 62 64 60 60 57 56 51 52 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 26 25 25 26 27 28 31 31 32 31 28 24 20 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 88 90 89 88 86 94 115 110 130 102 73 21 27 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 40 29 18 35 76 85 121 44 81 23 -12 -74 -40 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 6 5 4 4 5 8 15 34 34 18 8 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 2189 2283 2381 2451 2525 2600 2617 2601 2670 2815 2599 2233 1881 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 13.7 14.4 15.1 15.8 16.4 18.0 20.1 22.4 24.9 27.6 30.4 33.4 36.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 179.1 180.4 181.7 182.7 183.6 184.8 185.4 185.5 186.2 187.4 188.7 190.2 191.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 15 14 13 11 10 10 11 12 14 14 16 16 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 53 42 37 28 26 44 35 34 27 2 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 16 CX,CY: -14/ 7 T-12 MAX WIND: 65 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 573 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 7.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 100.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 22.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL -0. 0. -0. -1. -5. -10. -15. -19. -24. -28. -32. -37. -38. -39. -41. -43. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. -0. -1. -2. -1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 6. 5. 5. 5. 4. 5. 5. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -3. -3. PERSISTENCE 9. 12. 13. 11. 7. 3. -1. -3. -3. -3. -5. -6. -6. -6. -5. -4. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 6. 8. 9. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 5. 6. 6. 6. 5. 4. 4. 4. 4. 5. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. 0. 0. 1. 4. 6. 8. 7. 2. -3. -7. -6. -6. -5. -5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. RI POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 3. 2. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 10. 15. 17. 16. 15. 13. 8. 5. 1. -11. -24. -37. -37. -37. -36. -35. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 100. LAT, LON: 13.7 179.1 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP072014 GENEVIEVE 08/07/14 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 46.6 30.0 to 135.0 0.16 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 35.0 -20.0 to 40.0 0.92 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 7.8 17.2 to 1.6 0.60 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 39.6 -30.0 to 145.0 0.40 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 375.0 742.0 to -74.0 0.45 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 100.0 25.0 to 120.0 0.32 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 7.0 34.4 to 2.3 0.85 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 37.2 3.0 to 94.0 0.38 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 9999.0 2.0 to -2.0 999.00 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Logistic: 88.4% 71.9% 64.3% 63.8% 67.8% 50.9% 19.6% 0.6% Bayesian: 52.7% 73.8% 51.8% 43.1% 35.4% 3.4% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP072014 GENEVIEVE 08/07/14 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##