* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * JULIO EP102014 08/06/14 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 65 67 69 70 71 71 70 67 65 63 64 61 59 59 61 62 65 V (KT) LAND 65 67 69 70 71 71 70 67 65 63 64 61 59 59 61 62 65 V (KT) LGEM 65 67 68 69 68 67 65 62 57 53 50 48 46 N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 10 2 4 4 4 4 7 6 4 6 5 10 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 2 0 -1 -1 0 3 3 3 0 1 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 23 3 88 121 95 339 339 327 256 188 74 121 98 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 27.0 27.0 26.5 25.8 26.0 25.4 25.8 25.5 25.7 26.0 26.1 26.3 26.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 136 136 130 123 125 119 123 119 121 125 126 128 131 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.9 -52.6 -51.7 -51.9 -52.1 -51.7 -52.1 -51.7 -52.2 -52.1 -52.4 -52.0 -52.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.4 0.7 0.8 0.7 0.5 0.3 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 8 7 7 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 64 67 69 66 65 61 59 59 59 63 62 61 61 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 27 29 29 29 29 28 28 26 25 24 25 23 22 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 9 15 21 18 8 3 -6 -5 -9 -12 -25 -36 -51 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 42 65 76 52 5 23 -11 5 46 30 39 28 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -7 1 0 0 -2 -3 1 10 13 12 10 8 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 2082 2176 2277 2202 2037 1710 1406 1102 819 544 321 233 273 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 15.0 15.4 15.7 16.1 16.4 17.0 17.6 18.2 19.0 19.9 21.1 22.4 23.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 129.7 131.3 132.8 134.3 135.8 138.8 141.6 144.4 147.0 149.6 152.2 154.6 156.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 15 15 15 15 15 14 14 13 13 13 13 13 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 10 12 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 3 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 15 CX,CY: -13/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 60 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 542 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 65.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 9.5 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 1. -0. -2. -4. -6. -7. -8. -9. -10. -11. -13. -14. -16. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 6. 8. 9. 10. 10. 9. 9. 9. 9. 9. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -1. -2. -4. -3. -6. -7. -6. -5. -5. -5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 5. 6. 6. 5. 2. -0. -2. -1. -4. -6. -6. -4. -3. -0. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 65. LAT, LON: 15.0 129.7 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP102014 JULIO 08/06/14 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 65.1 30.0 to 135.0 0.33 2.9 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -20.0 to 40.0 0.42 3.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 4.9 17.2 to 1.6 0.79 5.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 48.0 -30.0 to 145.0 0.45 3.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 324.4 742.0 to -74.0 0.51 -3.2 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 65.0 25.0 to 120.0 0.88 5.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.9 34.4 to 2.3 0.55 2.6 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 5.0 3.0 to 94.0 0.02 0.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 1.9 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.1 2.0 to -2.0 0.52 0.4 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 17% is 2.8 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 28% is 1.9 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 22% is 3.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 22% is 3.5 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 3.6 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 19% is 2.8 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 17.4% 28.2% 22.2% 21.6% 15.3% 18.6% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 4.1% 10.3% 7.0% 4.4% 1.5% 3.5% 1.0% 0.2% Bayesian: 0.3% 0.7% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 7.3% 13.1% 9.8% 8.7% 5.6% 7.4% 0.3% 0.1% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP102014 JULIO 08/06/14 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##