* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * BERTHA AL032014 08/05/14 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 45 44 46 48 51 54 52 44 25 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 45 44 46 48 51 54 52 44 25 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 45 41 40 40 39 37 34 29 23 18 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 35 42 48 57 62 69 76 82 86 83 75 48 30 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -1 -1 0 -2 -13 -8 -13 -14 -8 -6 0 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 255 252 247 241 236 242 244 262 269 284 282 270 264 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 27.2 27.3 26.8 26.7 24.2 23.2 17.2 15.6 16.0 16.4 18.1 18.9 9.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 130 132 126 125 104 98 77 74 76 77 81 83 71 N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 116 117 112 111 93 88 72 71 72 73 76 77 69 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -54.1 -54.1 -54.1 -54.0 -53.4 -54.0 -53.8 -54.1 -53.5 -52.7 -51.5 -51.5 -52.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.3 0.1 -0.1 -0.4 -0.9 -0.8 -0.6 0.0 0.4 1.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 5 5 4 3 1 0 0 0 1 0 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 59 55 55 57 58 59 60 63 55 55 55 56 60 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 11 13 17 17 19 20 21 23 18 15 15 19 17 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -22 -4 21 51 73 91 102 69 76 90 92 84 62 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 43 67 99 131 119 91 94 36 6 -7 -1 27 40 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 7 14 11 20 36 22 31 38 -3 26 16 11 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 410 517 448 427 375 367 247 695 1269 1215 570 142 45 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 35.5 36.9 38.3 39.7 41.1 43.6 45.9 47.8 48.8 49.0 49.5 50.4 51.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 71.2 69.2 67.1 64.7 62.3 56.5 50.1 43.5 35.7 26.8 17.3 7.4 -2.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 20 22 23 23 24 25 25 25 28 30 32 32 31 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 18 21 2 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 30/ 18 CX,CY: 9/ 16 T-12 MAX WIND: 60 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 752 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 21.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 67.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -2. -3. -4. -6. -9. -11. -12. -14. -15. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. -0. -4. -15. -31. -47. -61. -75. -84. -90.-105.-115.-120.-124. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 5. 7. 9. 9. 8. 7. 6. 6. 5. 5. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 7. 8. 8. 8. 9. 11. 11. 11. 10. PERSISTENCE -3. -5. -5. -5. -3. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -4. -4. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 6. 6. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 1. 3. 3. 5. 6. 9. 11. 6. 1. 0. 5. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 1. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -7. -7. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. -2. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -1. 1. 3. 6. 9. 7. -1. -20. -38. -54. -59. -70. -85. -96.-104.-109. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 45. LAT, LON: 35.5 71.2 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL032014 BERTHA 08/05/14 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -15.0 -45.0 to 30.0 0.40 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 49.1 25.9 to 2.2 0.00 0.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 8.8 0.0 to 147.0 0.06 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 21.9 33.3 to 3.1 0.38 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 45.0 25.0 to 125.0 0.56 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.2 2.6 to -2.7 0.52 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 238.2 814.0 to -65.0 0.66 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 64.9 30.0 to 128.0 0.36 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 91.8 -28.0 to 171.0 0.60 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 5.8 95.0 to 0.0 0.94 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.6% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL032014 BERTHA 08/05/14 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL032014 BERTHA 08/05/2014 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 45 44 46 48 51 54 52 44 25 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 45 44 46 48 51 54 52 44 25 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 45 42 41 43 46 49 47 39 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 45 39 36 35 38 41 39 31 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT