* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * GENEVIEVE EP072014 08/05/14 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 34 39 44 50 62 74 82 90 96 100 103 98 96 93 91 88 V (KT) LAND 30 34 39 44 50 62 74 82 90 96 100 103 98 96 93 91 88 V (KT) LGEM 30 31 33 36 40 50 64 79 95 107 112 112 109 N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 13 5 3 8 6 6 9 9 6 5 7 11 25 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -4 -5 -2 -3 -2 -1 -6 -3 -1 1 1 0 -6 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 108 108 86 77 72 32 33 34 291 280 249 210 223 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 28.7 28.7 28.7 28.5 28.4 28.5 28.6 28.7 29.0 28.9 29.1 29.2 28.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 153 153 153 151 150 151 151 152 155 153 156 157 153 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.6 -52.9 -52.3 -52.1 -52.3 -52.1 -51.9 -51.9 -51.9 -51.6 -51.6 -51.4 -50.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.4 0.8 0.6 1.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 8 9 9 9 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 70 71 73 73 73 69 64 59 58 57 56 55 51 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 15 15 15 15 16 17 19 20 24 28 31 34 34 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 113 111 106 105 102 93 94 93 97 112 123 154 150 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 106 71 54 50 36 39 74 92 73 65 67 47 -24 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -2 -5 -6 -6 -5 0 -1 0 0 5 13 17 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1633 1704 1788 1876 1973 2170 2373 2563 2717 2822 2818 2765 2727 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 10.9 11.4 11.8 12.3 12.7 13.7 14.6 15.6 16.8 18.2 19.8 21.6 23.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 170.5 172.0 173.4 174.8 176.2 178.9 181.4 183.7 185.6 187.0 188.0 188.8 189.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 14 15 14 14 14 14 12 12 10 9 9 10 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 32 42 42 42 57 61 52 39 45 56 71 53 31 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 13 CX,CY: -12/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 528 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 9.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 89.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 28.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 6. 11. 17. 23. 26. 29. 32. 34. 36. 38. 40. 42. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. 6. 7. 7. 5. 5. 5. 5. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 7. 7. 5. 4. 4. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 8. 8. 8. 9. 10. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 7. 12. 18. 22. 24. 22. 20. 18. 16. 15. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. -0. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 2. 1. 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -8. -12. RI POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 5. 3. 1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 4. 9. 14. 20. 32. 44. 52. 60. 66. 70. 73. 68. 66. 63. 61. 58. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 10.9 170.5 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP072014 GENEVIEVE 08/05/14 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 122.2 30.0 to 135.0 0.88 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -20.0 to 40.0 0.33 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 7.1 17.2 to 1.6 0.64 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 63.4 -30.0 to 145.0 0.53 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 74.0 742.0 to -74.0 0.82 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 25.0 to 120.0 0.15 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 9.9 34.4 to 2.3 0.76 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 43.0 3.0 to 94.0 0.44 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 9999.0 2.0 to -2.0 999.00 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Logistic: 17.6% 57.7% 40.9% 26.0% 26.0% 35.2% 49.3% 46.2% Bayesian: 3.2% 48.6% 27.0% 11.5% 5.0% 59.4% 77.6% 18.3% Consensus: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP072014 GENEVIEVE 08/05/14 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##