* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * BERTHA AL032014 08/05/14 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 50 47 48 50 51 54 52 48 37 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 50 47 48 50 51 54 52 48 37 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 50 46 45 45 45 43 39 35 30 23 19 18 18 17 17 N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 28 35 42 48 57 69 69 78 84 80 71 63 55 49 54 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -2 0 0 -1 -11 -6 -10 -11 -11 0 5 3 5 4 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 268 255 251 247 241 232 234 246 255 261 272 263 248 244 244 N/A N/A SST (C) 27.4 27.2 27.4 26.9 26.2 23.7 19.8 15.5 16.7 15.3 16.3 17.9 17.8 18.1 17.8 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 132 130 133 127 120 101 83 74 76 74 75 77 75 75 74 N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 118 116 118 112 106 90 77 70 72 70 70 71 69 69 68 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -54.0 -54.1 -54.2 -54.0 -54.2 -53.6 -54.0 -54.2 -53.8 -52.7 -51.3 -50.4 -49.6 -48.9 -48.6 N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.1 -0.1 0.1 -0.4 -0.8 -0.8 -0.5 1.4 1.4 1.2 0.9 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 6 7 6 5 4 4 2 0 0 0 0 1 1 1 1 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 63 59 56 58 60 57 59 63 58 51 47 45 41 44 57 N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 10 10 14 16 17 20 21 24 25 20 16 23 25 20 16 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -29 -26 5 27 48 90 111 95 64 112 143 166 159 74 15 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 30 43 76 104 110 103 91 81 7 -3 -21 -8 18 14 16 N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 7 8 11 3 16 13 22 18 -8 -129 -41 -22 -12 -27 0 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 333 427 488 427 413 307 190 387 910 1479 1103 643 280 77 35 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 34.1 35.6 37.1 38.5 39.8 42.6 45.0 47.2 48.5 49.0 49.4 49.9 50.4 xx.x xx.x N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 72.6 71.0 69.4 67.3 65.1 59.9 54.0 47.7 40.6 32.8 25.4 18.8 13.3 xxx.x xxx.x N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 25 25 25 23 20 16 14 13 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 9 22 27 5 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 20/ 18 CX,CY: 6/ 17 T-12 MAX WIND: 65 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 740 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 21.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 35.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. -0. -2. -4. -6. -8. -11. -15. -18. -20. -22. -23. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. -0. -1. -2. -7. -16. -30. -44. -56. -68. -78. -87. -99.-106.-111.-115. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 6. 7. 8. 7. 5. 4. 4. 3. 2. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 5. 6. 8. 8. 8. 9. 10. 12. 12. 12. 12. PERSISTENCE -3. -5. -5. -4. -3. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 1. 0. -0. -2. -4. -3. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 2. 3. 5. 8. 10. 14. 16. 9. 4. 12. 14. 6. -1. -1. -2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 5. 5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -6. -6. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. -1. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -1. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -3. -2. -0. 1. 4. 2. -2. -13. -31. -50. -52. -61. -82. -99.-106.-111. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 50. LAT, LON: 34.1 72.6 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL032014 BERTHA 08/05/14 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -15.0 -45.0 to 30.0 0.40 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 42.2 25.9 to 2.2 0.00 0.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 12.6 0.0 to 147.0 0.09 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 21.9 33.3 to 3.1 0.38 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 50.0 25.0 to 125.0 0.70 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.4 2.6 to -2.7 0.41 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 260.6 814.0 to -65.0 0.63 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 63.9 30.0 to 128.0 0.35 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 72.6 -28.0 to 171.0 0.51 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 1.5 95.0 to 0.0 0.98 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL032014 BERTHA 08/05/14 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL032014 BERTHA 08/05/2014 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 50 47 48 50 51 54 52 48 37 19 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 50 49 50 52 53 56 54 50 39 21 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 50 47 46 48 49 52 50 46 35 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 50 44 41 40 41 44 42 38 27 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT