* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * GENEVIEVE EP072014 08/05/14 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 32 34 38 41 49 64 73 84 91 96 99 99 97 96 95 94 V (KT) LAND 30 32 34 38 41 49 64 73 84 91 96 99 99 97 96 95 94 V (KT) LGEM 30 31 32 34 36 43 54 66 80 95 102 106 109 N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 14 10 5 N/A N/A 10 6 10 7 8 5 5 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -5 -5 -4 N/A N/A -2 -1 -6 -3 -2 -3 0 -5 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 109 115 95 N/A N/A 14 21 360 330 289 259 199 230 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 28.7 28.7 28.7 28.6 28.5 28.4 28.7 28.6 29.1 28.9 28.9 29.1 29.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 154 154 154 152 151 150 153 151 156 154 153 155 155 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.1 -52.6 -52.8 N/A N/A -52.6 -51.7 -52.0 -51.2 -51.8 -51.3 -51.1 -50.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.1 0.1 N/A N/A 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.5 1.2 0.9 1.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 8 N/A N/A 9 10 10 10 11 11 10 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 67 70 71 N/A N/A 69 65 62 61 58 58 58 55 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 14 15 15 LOST LOST 14 20 20 25 29 32 34 35 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 111 112 109 N/A N/A 96 99 94 102 104 123 123 135 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 137 90 49 N/A N/A 33 59 63 102 71 37 40 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -1 -2 -6 N/A N/A -5 -1 -1 1 3 6 14 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1585 1650 1728 1810 1902 2096 2311 2526 2702 2839 2784 2696 2620 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 10.5 11.0 11.4 11.9 12.4 13.3 14.2 15.0 16.0 17.2 18.5 20.0 21.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 169.3 170.8 172.3 173.8 175.2 177.9 180.6 183.1 185.2 186.9 188.2 189.2 190.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 15 15 15 15 14 14 13 12 10 10 9 9 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 31 34 43 41 44 71 53 49 41 51 51 53 56 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 15 CX,CY: -13/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 489 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 27.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 56.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 12.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 6. 11. 17. 23. 26. 29. 32. 34. 36. 38. 40. 42. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 5. 5. 6. 7. 7. 6. 6. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 2. 3. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 5. 4. 3. 2. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 8. 9. 9. 9. 10. 11. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 6. 7. 14. 20. 24. 26. 25. 22. 20. 18. 16. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 3. 2. 1. 0. -0. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 2. 1. 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -8. -12. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 8. 11. 19. 34. 43. 54. 61. 66. 69. 69. 67. 66. 65. 64. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 10.5 169.3 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP072014 GENEVIEVE 08/05/14 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 122.9 30.0 to 135.0 0.88 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -20.0 to 40.0 0.33 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 9.8 17.2 to 1.6 0.48 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 92.0 -30.0 to 145.0 0.70 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 84.0 742.0 to -74.0 0.81 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 25.0 to 120.0 0.15 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 27.3 34.4 to 2.3 0.22 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 38.6 3.0 to 94.0 0.39 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 9999.0 2.0 to -2.0 999.00 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Logistic: 2.9% 18.2% 10.2% 5.0% 5.9% 7.6% 17.9% 29.9% Bayesian: 0.5% 10.4% 4.9% 1.4% 0.8% 3.1% 10.7% 15.2% Consensus: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP072014 GENEVIEVE 08/05/14 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##