* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ISELLE EP092014 08/04/14 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 120 118 113 106 99 83 72 62 54 49 45 42 42 43 45 47 48 V (KT) LAND 120 118 113 106 99 83 72 62 54 49 45 42 42 43 45 47 48 V (KT) LGEM 120 116 108 100 92 79 68 62 59 57 55 53 51 N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 5 5 8 11 10 14 7 9 11 14 16 14 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 0 -1 0 4 -3 -4 -6 -2 1 0 4 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 249 240 274 246 212 202 143 180 241 249 269 265 277 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 26.7 26.5 26.3 26.3 26.2 26.1 25.6 25.6 26.3 26.8 26.9 27.2 27.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 130 128 126 126 126 126 121 121 129 134 134 137 140 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.0 -51.4 -51.9 -52.0 -51.7 -51.1 -51.5 -51.9 -52.0 -52.1 -52.3 -52.1 -52.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.6 1.0 0.9 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.6 0.6 0.5 0.2 0.0 0.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 7 6 6 7 6 7 7 8 8 8 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 57 53 51 49 48 42 39 35 34 34 35 37 37 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 26 26 25 26 26 23 21 19 18 16 15 13 12 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 0 10 22 42 58 71 78 60 36 24 -9 -15 -39 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 29 4 -11 -13 -1 -17 -40 -28 -17 -13 -18 -6 -9 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 0 3 2 4 10 16 14 12 9 3 2 -5 -2 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1920 1836 1752 1649 1547 1272 955 616 271 34 17 73 342 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 16.1 16.2 16.2 16.4 16.5 17.1 17.8 18.6 19.5 20.4 21.3 22.1 22.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 137.0 137.8 138.6 139.5 140.5 143.0 145.9 149.0 152.2 155.4 158.3 160.9 163.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 8 8 8 9 11 13 15 15 16 15 13 13 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 4 3 2 1 1 0 0 0 1 7 11 14 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 9 CX,CY: -8/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 110 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 649 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 8.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 94.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL -3. -6. -10. -14. -22. -32. -41. -49. -55. -60. -63. -63. -64. -66. -69. -72. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. -1. -3. -4. -5. -3. 0. 3. 5. 5. 4. 3. 2. 2. 3. 5. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -5. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. PERSISTENCE 3. 3. 3. 3. 1. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -5. -7. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -0. -1. -2. -5. -9. -12. -15. -16. -17. -17. -16. -14. -13. -12. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -5. -6. -5. -4. -3. -1. 0. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 5. 5. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -2. -7. -14. -21. -37. -48. -58. -66. -71. -75. -78. -78. -77. -75. -73. -72. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 120. LAT, LON: 16.1 137.0 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP092014 ISELLE 08/04/14 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 7.2 30.0 to 135.0 0.00 0.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 10.0 -20.0 to 40.0 0.50 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 7.8 17.2 to 1.6 0.60 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 1.6 -30.0 to 145.0 0.18 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 824.6 742.0 to -74.0 0.00 0.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 120.0 25.0 to 120.0 0.00 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 8.7 34.4 to 2.3 0.80 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 2.2 3.0 to 94.0 0.00 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 17.3 56.6 to 0.0 0.69 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.9 2.0 to -2.0 0.27 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.4% 0.3% 0.3% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.5% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP092014 ISELLE 08/04/14 18 UTC ## ## PASSED SCREENING STEP, MIGHT BE ANNULAR, CALCULATE AHI FROM DISCRIMINANT ANALYSIS ## ## AHI= 78 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##