* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * BERTHA AL032014 08/04/14 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 70 73 73 72 71 68 68 64 59 52 44 26 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 70 73 73 72 71 68 68 64 59 52 44 26 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 70 74 75 75 75 77 73 63 52 45 39 33 29 29 29 29 27 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 15 18 20 24 29 49 53 58 64 75 76 80 85 69 48 23 19 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 0 -1 -5 -1 -4 0 -7 -3 -8 -7 -7 -1 9 2 -3 -6 SHEAR DIR 321 296 299 278 262 248 234 236 238 249 246 259 263 261 264 265 294 SST (C) 28.8 28.3 27.6 27.2 27.3 27.5 24.1 23.3 17.6 14.9 15.2 15.6 15.3 16.4 16.8 16.9 17.3 POT. INT. (KT) 151 143 134 129 131 134 103 98 76 71 72 72 71 72 73 73 74 ADJ. POT. INT. 138 130 120 115 116 119 92 87 71 68 68 68 67 67 68 68 68 200 MB T (C) -53.7 -53.5 -53.6 -53.8 -53.8 -53.6 -53.7 -53.9 -53.9 -54.0 -53.3 -52.1 -51.0 -50.4 -49.6 -50.0 -50.8 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.1 -0.5 -0.8 -0.3 -0.4 0.2 0.5 0.8 1.3 0.9 TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 8 7 7 5 4 2 1 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 1 700-500 MB RH 60 63 63 65 61 59 60 65 68 67 55 52 48 51 44 39 42 MODEL VTX (KT) 13 12 10 11 12 15 20 20 23 25 28 25 22 26 30 27 21 850 MB ENV VOR -35 -37 -41 -33 -14 16 70 106 134 133 107 130 155 102 103 56 12 200 MB DIV 71 63 39 42 50 73 147 108 111 83 47 9 -17 -37 -48 -64 -70 700-850 TADV 22 21 14 21 25 0 8 23 44 56 -33 -25 -52 -26 -8 -2 -11 LAND (KM) 665 590 468 438 462 492 392 318 73 390 799 1229 1494 1179 856 516 187 LAT (DEG N) 28.6 30.3 31.9 33.5 35.0 37.8 40.7 43.6 46.1 48.1 49.1 49.2 49.2 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 73.6 73.2 72.8 71.7 70.7 67.2 62.6 57.7 52.7 47.6 42.1 36.2 31.0 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 16 17 17 18 18 21 23 22 21 19 19 18 16 15 15 15 14 HEAT CONTENT 26 15 8 6 12 10 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):355/ 15 CX,CY: 0/ 15 T-12 MAX WIND: 55 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 736 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 58.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 2.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. -2. -6. -11. -16. -21. -25. -30. -35. -38. -41. -43. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -1. -2. -4. -9. -15. -22. -29. -36. -44. -53. -62. -73. -78. -78. -77. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. 4. 3. 3. 3. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 4. 6. 7. 7. 8. 9. 11. 11. 10. 10. PERSISTENCE 3. 3. 3. 3. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -2. -1. 1. 6. 7. 10. 12. 16. 11. 6. 10. 14. 8. 1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 1. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. -0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 3. 3. 2. 1. -2. -2. -6. -11. -18. -26. -44. -61. -69. -71. -76. -84. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 70. LAT, LON: 28.6 73.6 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL032014 BERTHA 08/04/14 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 15.0 -45.0 to 30.0 0.80 4.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 21.1 25.9 to 2.2 0.20 0.6 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 13.4 0.0 to 147.0 0.09 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.7 33.3 to 3.1 0.58 1.3 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 70.0 25.0 to 125.0 0.85 1.7 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.6 2.6 to -2.7 0.19 0.2 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 359.6 814.0 to -65.0 0.52 0.8 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 53.7 30.0 to 128.0 0.24 0.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 53.0 -28.0 to 171.0 0.41 0.5 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 95.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 1.4 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 5% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 10.5% 15.2% 10.6% 8.4% 4.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 3.6% 7.7% 4.8% 3.6% 0.7% 1.5% 0.1% 0.0% Bayesian: 4.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 6.3% 7.6% 5.2% 4.0% 1.8% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL032014 BERTHA 08/04/14 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL032014 BERTHA 08/04/2014 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 4 4( 8) 4( 12) 3( 14) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 70 73 73 72 71 68 68 64 59 52 44 26 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 70 69 69 68 67 64 64 60 55 48 40 22 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 70 67 66 65 64 61 61 57 52 45 37 19 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 70 64 61 60 59 56 56 52 47 40 32 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT