* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * JULIO EP102014 08/04/14 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 40 46 53 60 68 80 88 93 96 96 94 91 85 83 81 81 81 V (KT) LAND 40 46 53 60 68 80 88 93 96 96 94 91 85 83 81 81 81 V (KT) LGEM 40 45 52 59 65 78 85 87 87 84 80 75 71 N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 14 10 12 14 13 16 15 12 13 8 8 9 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -2 -5 -4 -4 -3 0 0 -3 1 3 2 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 53 52 52 54 56 32 43 44 21 358 18 342 344 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 28.8 28.8 28.9 28.5 28.0 27.4 27.3 27.1 27.1 27.0 26.4 26.3 26.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 153 154 155 151 145 139 138 136 136 135 129 128 128 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.9 -52.6 -51.9 -51.9 -52.2 -51.7 -52.2 -51.3 -51.8 -51.1 -51.6 -51.2 -51.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.7 0.9 0.9 0.7 0.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 9 8 8 8 7 7 7 7 6 7 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 62 60 62 64 66 67 72 72 71 69 67 67 68 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 15 18 20 22 24 26 28 29 31 32 32 32 31 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 26 33 45 49 49 39 31 32 26 18 20 21 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 18 46 101 108 93 83 82 115 34 21 31 51 41 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 2 3 0 -1 -3 -7 -2 -1 -3 -6 -2 4 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1398 1497 1587 1673 1765 1950 2143 2315 2200 1909 1599 1281 961 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 13.5 13.5 13.4 13.4 13.4 13.6 13.9 14.3 14.7 15.1 15.5 15.9 16.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 118.8 120.1 121.4 122.7 124.0 126.6 129.3 132.0 134.7 137.4 140.3 143.3 146.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 12 13 13 13 13 13 13 13 13 14 14 15 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 28 29 34 27 12 5 11 6 4 5 1 1 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 11 CX,CY: -10/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 553 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 19.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 81.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 40.9 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 6. 9. 13. 16. 17. 19. 19. 19. 19. 20. 20. 21. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 8. 8. 7. 7. 6. 5. 4. 4. 3. 3. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 1. 2. 5. 7. 8. 12. 17. 21. 23. 23. 21. 18. 16. 15. 13. 12. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. -0. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. RI POTENTIAL 1. 3. 5. 7. 10. 9. 5. 1. -1. -3. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 6. 13. 20. 28. 40. 48. 53. 56. 56. 54. 51. 45. 43. 41. 41. 42. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 40. LAT, LON: 13.5 118.8 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP102014 JULIO 08/04/14 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 111.5 30.0 to 135.0 0.78 7.6 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 10.0 -20.0 to 40.0 0.50 5.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 12.6 17.2 to 1.6 0.29 2.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 73.2 -30.0 to 145.0 0.59 4.5 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 200.2 742.0 to -74.0 0.66 -4.7 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 40.0 25.0 to 120.0 0.46 3.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 19.7 34.4 to 2.3 0.46 2.5 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 26.0 3.0 to 94.0 0.25 0.8 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 2.2 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -2.2 2.0 to -2.0 1.00 1.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 25% is 2.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 24% is 2.8 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 20% is 3.2 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 3.3 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 20% is 3.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 23% is 3.9 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 27% is 5.8 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 14.3% 25.0% 24.4% 20.0% 13.9% 20.1% 22.8% 27.4% Logistic: 5.5% 15.1% 9.4% 5.1% 6.1% 7.9% 30.9% 22.0% Bayesian: 2.2% 13.7% 5.7% 1.2% 0.6% 1.2% 1.8% 3.8% Consensus: 7.3% 17.9% 13.2% 8.8% 6.8% 9.7% 18.5% 17.7% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP102014 JULIO 08/04/14 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##