* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ISELLE EP092014 08/04/14 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 110 110 109 106 101 89 78 67 58 53 51 46 46 47 48 49 51 V (KT) LAND 110 110 109 106 101 89 78 67 58 53 51 46 46 47 48 49 51 V (KT) LGEM 110 109 106 101 96 85 73 61 53 49 48 47 46 N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 6 6 1 3 5 14 14 8 12 12 11 19 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -1 -1 -1 1 0 0 -2 -7 -2 4 0 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 57 22 103 158 186 227 210 194 198 249 230 272 264 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 26.5 26.7 26.8 26.6 26.4 26.3 26.1 25.5 25.5 26.3 26.6 26.6 27.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 128 130 131 129 127 127 125 120 120 128 132 131 135 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.1 -52.4 -52.1 -51.5 -51.7 -51.6 -51.5 -51.8 -52.2 -52.6 -52.0 -52.2 -52.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.2 0.4 0.4 0.6 0.5 0.6 0.4 0.5 0.7 0.4 0.6 0.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 6 6 6 6 6 7 7 8 8 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 59 58 57 55 54 49 44 39 37 35 35 36 37 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 25 26 26 25 24 25 23 21 19 17 18 15 14 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -14 -12 -1 6 23 54 80 74 65 43 42 1 -11 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 34 24 24 19 14 -14 -30 -34 -3 5 -4 -17 -8 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -3 -2 0 1 3 10 17 17 10 10 2 1 -2 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 2109 2016 1923 1839 1754 1573 1306 1007 677 344 100 39 90 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 16.0 16.0 16.0 16.1 16.1 16.3 17.0 17.8 18.7 19.6 20.7 21.8 22.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 135.2 136.1 137.0 137.8 138.6 140.3 142.7 145.4 148.4 151.5 154.6 157.6 160.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 9 9 8 8 8 10 12 15 15 15 15 14 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 1 3 5 3 2 1 0 0 0 1 5 5 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 9 CX,CY: -8/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 100 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 577 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 8.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 99.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL -2. -4. -7. -10. -16. -24. -33. -40. -46. -50. -53. -53. -55. -57. -59. -63. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -0. 0. 0. -1. -0. 2. 4. 5. 6. 5. 4. 3. 3. 4. 5. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -6. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. -0. -1. -0. -2. -6. -10. -12. -11. -14. -14. -13. -12. -11. -10. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -2. -1. 0. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 3. 4. 4. 3. 4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 5. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 5. 5. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 0. -1. -4. -9. -21. -32. -43. -52. -57. -59. -64. -64. -63. -62. -61. -59. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 110. LAT, LON: 16.0 135.2 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP092014 ISELLE 08/04/14 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 19.0 30.0 to 135.0 0.00 0.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 10.0 -20.0 to 40.0 0.50 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 4.2 17.2 to 1.6 0.83 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 23.0 -30.0 to 145.0 0.30 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 619.2 742.0 to -74.0 0.15 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 110.0 25.0 to 120.0 0.16 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 8.6 34.4 to 2.3 0.80 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 2.8 3.0 to 94.0 0.00 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.0 2.0 to -2.0 0.50 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 2.8% 1.9% 1.2% 0.9% 0.3% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.9% 0.6% 0.4% 0.3% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP092014 ISELLE 08/04/14 06 UTC ## ## PASSED SCREENING STEP, MIGHT BE ANNULAR, CALCULATE AHI FROM DISCRIMINANT ANALYSIS ## ## AHI= 68 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##