* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ISELLE EP092014 08/04/14 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 95 92 91 90 88 82 75 68 62 55 51 47 47 48 49 50 50 V (KT) LAND 95 92 91 90 88 82 75 68 62 55 51 47 47 48 49 50 50 V (KT) LGEM 95 92 89 86 83 76 70 61 53 48 45 45 45 N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 6 9 7 4 5 6 9 8 5 9 11 15 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 -1 -2 -3 -4 1 4 0 -1 -3 -3 -1 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 57 87 51 123 151 210 205 208 189 245 274 295 262 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 26.6 26.6 26.6 26.5 26.3 26.3 26.2 26.0 25.6 26.1 26.4 26.5 26.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 129 129 129 128 126 126 126 125 121 127 130 130 132 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.9 -51.9 -52.0 -51.8 -51.4 -51.8 -51.3 -51.7 -51.8 -52.3 -52.4 -52.5 -52.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.6 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.6 0.4 0.2 0.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 5 6 6 6 6 6 6 7 7 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 57 59 58 58 55 50 45 41 36 34 34 35 36 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 26 25 26 27 25 26 25 23 21 19 17 15 14 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -21 -10 -7 5 16 53 80 96 88 74 56 21 -3 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 35 50 36 40 39 20 10 -33 -21 -29 -18 -26 -12 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -8 -3 -2 0 0 4 14 15 12 8 7 1 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 2206 2111 2016 1933 1850 1672 1441 1164 853 503 191 35 41 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 15.9 16.0 16.0 16.0 16.0 16.1 16.6 17.3 18.2 19.2 20.2 21.2 22.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 134.3 135.2 136.1 136.9 137.7 139.4 141.5 144.0 146.8 150.0 153.1 156.1 158.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 9 9 8 8 8 10 11 13 15 15 15 14 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 2 2 3 2 2 1 1 0 0 0 2 4 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 10 CX,CY: -9/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 100 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 547 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 7.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 99.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 2.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -3. -5. -10. -16. -22. -28. -32. -35. -37. -38. -40. -41. -44. -46. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 1. 3. 5. 6. 7. 6. 6. 5. 5. 6. 7. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -6. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. 0. 1. -0. -0. -0. -4. -6. -10. -12. -14. -14. -13. -12. -11. -10. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -1. -0. -0. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 6. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -4. -2. -1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -2. -4. -5. -7. -13. -20. -27. -33. -40. -44. -48. -48. -47. -46. -45. -45. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 95. LAT, LON: 15.9 134.3 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP092014 ISELLE 08/04/14 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 33.2 30.0 to 135.0 0.03 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -20.0 to 40.0 0.25 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 6.2 17.2 to 1.6 0.70 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 40.0 -30.0 to 145.0 0.40 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 513.4 742.0 to -74.0 0.28 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 95.0 25.0 to 120.0 0.40 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 7.7 34.4 to 2.3 0.83 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 2.2 3.0 to 94.0 0.00 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.4 2.0 to -2.0 0.41 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 1.4 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 11.1% 17.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.2% 1.7% 0.7% 0.4% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 4.1% 6.3% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP092014 ISELLE 08/04/14 00 UTC ## ## PASSED SCREENING STEP, MIGHT BE ANNULAR, CALCULATE AHI FROM DISCRIMINANT ANALYSIS ## ## AHI= 57 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##